Rheinmetall is sprinting in multiple directions at once — signing a space-surveillance pact with Norway, taking command of a Bundeswehr project for autonomous military convoys, and delivering the first artillery shells from a brand-new factory in Lower Saxony to Ukraine. Yet the stock continues to drift near the bottom of its 52-week range, hammered by a growing conviction on Wall Street that the company’s biggest growth engine is running out of fuel.
The shares recently traded at around €968, just 7% above their one-year low of €902.50 and more than 51% below the record high of €1,995 set in September 2025. Since the start of the year, the equity has lost nearly 40% of its value. The latest blow came from Bank of America, which took a knife to the revenue and margin targets for Rheinmetall’s weapons and ammunition division — the unit that has long been the centerpiece of the group’s growth narrative.
BofA analyst Benjamin Heelan now expects the unit to generate only about €10 billion in revenue by 2030, a far cry from the €14 billion to €16 billion the company itself has guided for. He also cut his margin assumption to around 24%, against management’s 30% target. The implied operating profit of roughly €2.4 billion is less than half the €4 billion to €5 billion the group has penciled in. The underlying thesis: modern warfare is shifting away from mass artillery toward drones, precision-guided munitions, and air defense, and NATO budgets will follow.
Heelan is not alone in his skepticism. MWB Research analyst Rieck removed his buy recommendation on the stock a week earlier, and JPMorgan’s David H. Perry flagged the risk of rapid technological disruption in defense markets at the start of the month. The broader market mood is also being weighed down by announced changes in German procurement policy: the defense ministry plans to open contracts to startups such as Helsing, Quantum, and Stark — which together raised €3.5 billion in the past four weeks — and to shift from rigid technical specifications to performance-based targets. Although the annual procurement budget is slated to rise to €183 billion by 2030, investors worry that Rheinmetall’s traditional franchise will face increasing competition from nimbler, tech-focused rivals.
The technical picture reinforces the bearish sentiment. The stock is trading roughly 36% below its 200-day moving average of €1,503, and the 50-day average stands at €1,135. The relative strength index of 34.5 points to oversold conditions, but no clear reversal has materialized. BofA, however, maintains a buy rating on the overall stock, albeit with a sharply reduced price target of €1,300 — implying potential upside of about a third from current levels.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Management is hoping that diversification can restore confidence. The memorandum of understanding with Space Norway aims to fuse X-band and C-band synthetic aperture radar technology for maritime surveillance in the Arctic and North Atlantic, building on the bilateral Hansa agreement. No concrete revenue figures were disclosed, so the deal remains a strategic signal rather than a near-term earnings catalyst. The company has also taken the lead role in the Bundeswehr’s InterRoC VII project, which will test autonomous HX military vehicles in the UK and train British forces on a retrofit solution dubbed the “Path A-kit.”
On the operational front, the first batch of 155 mm RH1412 artillery shells from the new Lower Saxony plant — in the low five-digit range — has been delivered to Ukraine, with further shipments scheduled through 2026. The site is on track to reach an annual capacity of 1.5 million rounds by 2030. Rheinmetall also confirmed on 16 July that the total number of voting rights had risen to 46,789,567 following the issuance of subscription shares — a technical adjustment that changes the equity base.
Yet even these achievements are clouded by setbacks. The cancellation of the F126 frigate project by the Bundeswehr at the end of June removed a cornerstone of Rheinmetall’s naval ambitions, a deal that had justified the acquisition of Naval Vessels Lürssen. The loss further undermines the medium-term growth narrative.
For now, investors face a company that is clearly executing on its strategic expansion but whose core artillery story is being directly challenged by the market. The next quarterly reports will provide the first real test of whether BofA’s downbeat projection is justified or whether Rheinmetall’s broader push can reignite faith in the stock.
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