ASML shares edged higher on Tuesday, closing up 2.51% at €1,558.00 after touching an intraday high of €1,562.60, as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Dutch chip-equipment maker’s second-quarter earnings report due Wednesday. The uptick came despite a fresh cloud of political uncertainty: reports on Monday revealed that US lawmakers are drafting tougher export controls targeting advanced chipmaking tools, explicitly naming ASML and seeking to tighten allies’ compliance with Washington’s line on China.
The proposed legislation zeroes in on ASML’s deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems. The company’s most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines are already restricted, but China remains a meaningful market for DUV gear — an estimated 20% of ASML’s expected 2026 revenue is tied to that segment. A bipartisan bill could ban DUV shipments to China outright, posing a concrete risk just as the company prepares to unveil its latest quarterly performance.
Analysts, however, are largely focused on the numbers. For the second quarter, consensus estimates compiled by LSEG point to net profit of €2.61 billion, an 8.8% sequential increase, and revenue of €8.8 billion, up 14% year over year. That sets the stage for what many expect to be a beat-and-raise report. Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini is among the optimists, citing ASML’s capacity being effectively sold out through the end of 2027. Morningstar’s Javier Correonero goes further, arguing that the company’s 2030 revenue target of at least €44 billion is already outdated; he models €60 billion instead. ING’s Marc Hesselink sees catch-up potential, noting that ASML has underperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index this year — a gap strong results and a capacity expansion update could close.
Capacity has become the central question for the company. ASML plans to deliver around 60 EUV systems this year and 80 in 2027, but CEO Christophe Fouquet has stressed the need to avoid becoming an industry bottleneck again, as happened during the pandemic. The company says it could theoretically produce up to 90 EUV units without adding capacity, and JPMorgan analysts believe 110 per year is feasible through improved processes and faster assembly. Beyond the 90 mark, ASML is exploring creative solutions for clients, including upgrades of older machines, accelerated installation, and securing additional inventories of critical components — lenses and mirrors from German supplier Zeiss and high-power lasers from Trumpf.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The earnings release arrives at a sensitive moment for the semiconductor sector. Anxiety over a potential sell-off in AI-driven tech stocks has gripped markets, raising the stakes for results from both ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which reports on July 16. TSMC, ASML’s largest customer, posted record June revenue of T$442.68 billion, signaling continued momentum in high-end chip manufacturing. Memory-chip makers SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are also expanding capacity, while Intel’s recovery and Elon Musk’s rumored TeraFab plans could further stoke demand.
On the political front, institutional investors have so far shrugged off the China debate. Wealth managers including Calamos Wealth Management and Bleakley Financial Group increased their ASML positions in the first quarter, citing the long-term AI cycle and the company’s effective monopoly on EUV technology. The stock sits 10.61% below its 52-week high of €1,748.00, reached on June 30, but has rallied 57.64% year to date and more than 125% over the past twelve months. Its market capitalization stands at roughly €605–610 billion, making ASML the most valuable listed company in Europe.
The 30-day annualized volatility of 64.80% underscores how sensitive the stock is to the outcome of Wednesday’s report. Investors will be parsing not only the quarterly figures but also management’s commentary on capacity expansion and its ability to navigate the new geopolitical headwinds. The order book for EUV machines — the most telling gauge of AI-driven demand — will be the key metric to watch, as it will test whether ASML can maintain its growth trajectory while Washington tightens its grip on the export of the very tools that make that growth possible.
Ad
Asml Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Asml Analysis from July 14 delivers the answer:
The latest Asml figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Asml investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 14.
Asml: Buy or sell? Read more here...
