ITM Power’s share price has more than doubled since its February trough of €0.65, yet the last few weeks have told a very different story. After touching a 52-week high of €2.58 in May, the stock has shed nearly half that value, hovering around €1.30 in recent trading. The annualised 30-day volatility of over 105 percent underscores a market that is palpably uneasy, even as the company piles up government grants and delivers record revenue.
The British electrolyser manufacturer has been showered with state support. On 9 July it formally received £46.5 million from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, adding to a £40 million capital injection from Great British Energy promised in April. Both sums are channelled into the Chronos automated production line at the Sheffield site, which is designed to churn out 1 gigawatt of next-generation electrolyser stacks per year. A day later, ITM announced a strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions for hydrogen projects in the UK.
But the macro tailwinds extend well beyond ITM’s own coffers. On 13 July the European Investment Bank committed a €450 million loan to OMV for a 140 MW green hydrogen plant in Austria, set to become the country’s largest. The same day, London published its updated Clean Flexibility Roadmap with the first concrete legislation for hydrogen-to-power uses. A day after that, environmental assessors were appointed for the £175 million Clean Energy Park at the Port of Tyne, a project forecast to inject £5.6 billion into the British economy. This is precisely the kind of policy momentum that should lift all boats in the hydrogen sector.
Yet the market is increasingly sceptical of promises that have not yet translated into deliverables. Plug Power, a direct competitor, announced a final investment decision on a 50 MW PEM electrolyser project in Australia on 7 July – a concrete win that ITM Power has yet to match. The message from traders seems clear: funding rounds and memoranda of understanding are no longer sufficient. Investors want binding contracts and project milestones, not just ambition.
ITM Power’s own financials offer some genuine encouragement. In the first half of fiscal 2026, the company posted record revenue of £18 million, driven by plant sales. The gross loss narrowed to £6.5 million from £10.2 million a year earlier. The order book swelled to £152 million, with 71 percent of those contracts now classified as profitable – a marked improvement from the earlier, low-margin legacy contracts. Management raised the full-year revenue guidance to a range of £40–43 million, an 11 percent increase in the midpoint.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The Protium partnership adds project volume: first up is the Cromarty hydrogen project in the Scottish Highlands, an initial 15 MW electrolyser deployment with a final investment decision expected in December 2026. Separately, ITM is collaborating with Germany’s Stablegrid Group on two energy infrastructure projects totalling 710 MW of electrolyser capacity, with a first investment decision anticipated within the year.
Set against these encouraging signals, however, the immediate share price action is unequivocally bearish. The stock has fallen 16.35 percent over the past month and is now trading 23.11 percent below its 50-day moving average of €1.70. The 200-day average of €1.08 still lies 21.17 percent below the current level, suggesting the medium-term uptrend remains intact but short-term momentum has evaporated. The relative strength index of 39.8 is creeping towards oversold territory, though it remains in neutral.
The scepticism is not without foundation. ITM Power remains a loss-making enterprise: the EBITDA loss for fiscal 2026 is still pegged at £27–29 million, even after the upgraded revenue forecast. Efficiency gains have not yet been enough to reach break-even. The Chronos ramp-up carries technical risks – custom automation equipment and a smooth production launch are never a given. Meanwhile, a handful of legacy low-margin contracts will still be executed this year, weighing on overall gross margin.
Both the Cromarty and Stablegrid projects await final investment decisions. Any delay beyond the targeted dates would push revenue recognition further into the future. The wider green hydrogen market remains volatile and intensely competitive, with bigger players such as Plug Power already snapping up contracts.
For now, the market is pricing a binary outcome. A successful Chronos ramp-up, coupled with a clear final investment decision on Cromarty in December 2026, would support a bullish long-term narrative. Cost overruns at Sheffield or postponed investment decisions at either Cromarty or Stablegrid would prolong the path to sustainable profitability. Until those milestones are met, ITM Power will remain what its volatility figure suggests: a high-stakes bet on an industry that has won the policy argument but still needs to prove which companies will emerge as the commercial winners.
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