POET Technologies is entering a pivotal stretch: its much-anticipated 800G optical module production is slated to begin this quarter, even as the stock’s technical picture flashes a rare buy signal that has historically preceded double-digit gains. The company wrapped up a $400 million equity offering in May, leaving it with roughly $430 million in cash. Roughly $50 million of that will go toward new manufacturing equipment in the second half of 2026, with the goal of scaling to one million modules per month by the end of 2027. Management has said it expects to ship more than 30,000 optical modules this year, leveraging its optical interposer platform that integrates lasers and photonic circuits on a single semiconductor substrate.
The operational milestones stand in stark contrast to the stock’s recent trajectory. After touching a 52-week high of €18.84 in mid-May, the shares have shed more than 60% of their value, closing Monday at €6.94 before recovering to €7.25 on Tuesday — a 4.47% gain that coincided with a technical alert from Schaeffer’s Research. Quantitative analyst Rocky White identified a setup where the stock is trading within 0.75 times its average daily range around the 260-day moving average, having spent the prior two weeks and 80% of the last 42 trading days above that trendline. This configuration has appeared just seven times over the past decade, and in 86% of those cases the stock was higher a month later, with an average return of 24.7%.
Options are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations: the Schaeffer’s Volatility Index for POET stands at 111%, in the 2nd percentile of its annual range, making premium relatively cheap. The stock’s own 30-day annualized volatility, however, remains elevated at 113.29%, a reminder of the violent swings that have characterized its recent history. The relative strength index has fallen to 39.1 (or 36.4 on a 14-day basis, depending on the calculation), pushing into territory that often attracts bargain hunters. The 50-day moving average of €10.36 sits more than 30% above the current price, while the 200-day average of €6.86 lies just 5.7% below — a divergence that underscores the extreme range of this year’s moves.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying POET Technologies?
The technical optimism is tempered by real-world headwinds. An order cancellation early in the year triggered a shareholder class action that continues to weigh on sentiment. The company has maintained its production timeline for the second half of 2026, but the legal uncertainty has kept many institutional investors on the sidelines. Despite the recent rout, the stock still shows a year-to-date gain of 18.46% and a 12-month advance of 13.64%. From the November 2025 low of €3.40, the shares have more than doubled, illustrating the amplitude of the fluctuations that have defined this name.
For the coming months, the focus will be on two milestones: the actual start of 800G production in the third quarter and the first large-volume shipments. Until those are confirmed, the stock may remain at the mercy of volatility, but the convergence of a statistically robust technical pattern and a fundamental inflection point gives both bulls and bears plenty to argue about.
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