XRP is caught in a tug-of-war between a deteriorating macro backdrop and a steady accretion of institutional infrastructure. The token slipped below $1.07 on Tuesday after the United States declared a state of war with Iran, triggering a broad risk-off move across financial markets. The 1.64% intraday decline left the digital asset hovering dangerously close to its 52-week low of $1.01, touched on June 26.
The military escalation — confirmed by U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian targets including Bushehr, Chabahar and Bandar Abbas — sent capital scrambling out of risk assets. Oil surged past $80 a barrel on the WTI benchmark, while cryptocurrencies were hit unevenly. Bitcoin held above $62,000 with relative composure, but XRP, Stellar, Pi Network and Worldcoin absorbed the heaviest losses over the past 24 hours.
Against that anxious backdrop, XRP has shed roughly 6.6% over the past seven days and is down about 7% on the month. The year-to-date deficit now stands at 43%, and the token has lost more than 62% compared with 12 months ago. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish tone: the Relative Strength Index sits at 40.1, not yet oversold but clearly in weak territory, and all three major moving averages — the 50-day at $1.15, the 100-day at $1.28, and the 200-day at $1.45 — loom above the current price. The Parabolic SAR flags the next downside support at $1.04; a breach there would open the door to the $0.78 zone.
Yet the network itself is firing on cylinders that have little to do with spot price action. A notable milestone was reached on the XRP Ledger: the supply of the dollar-backed stablecoin RLUSD on XRPL has overtaken its presence on Ethereum. As of mid-July, about 863.2 million RLUSD resides on the XRP Ledger, compared with 676.1 million on Ethereum, representing 56.1% of the total 1.539 billion RLUSD in circulation.
Institutional recognition is also broadening. The UK Treasury this week published a report by Chris Woolard, the government’s champion for digital wholesale markets, announcing a taskforce of 54 firms to scale tokenized bond and repo markets. Ripple sits alongside BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Barclays as a recognized participant. The taskforce aims to move tokenized instruments from sandbox tests into live markets within 12 months, with early repo trials slated for spring 2027. Officials estimate that fully fledged tokenization could add £33 billion in annual economic output to the UK by 2035.
On the European front, Ripple secured a full CASP license from Luxembourg’s CSSF regulator, permitting it to offer institutional payment products across the European Economic Area under the MiCA framework. The company continues to build out its compliance footprint even as it commemorates the third anniversary of the Torres ruling on July 13, 2023 — the landmark decision that programmatic XRP sales on public exchanges do not constitute securities transactions.
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That legal victory came at a steep cost. CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed that the four-year defense against the SEC’s enforcement action ran to about $150 million. At one point in 2020, management seriously considered dissolving the company and distributing XRP holdings to shareholders. Instead, Ripple chose to litigate. The case concluded in August 2025 with a final civil penalty of $125.04 million.
The divergence between network progress and price action is perhaps most starkly visible in the institutional flow data. Spot XRP ETFs, which began trading in late 2025, have recorded net inflows for eight consecutive weeks, accumulating a total of $1.47 billion. Goldman Sachs alone holds $153.8 million across four different spot XRP ETFs. Yet these inflows have done little to arrest the downward drift in the token itself, which remains trapped below key resistance levels at $1.08 and $1.10.
The derivative market adds to the caution. Open interest in XRP futures has fallen to $2.35 billion, extending a decline that began after a brief recovery in early July. Falling open interest combined with falling prices is a classic signal of diminishing conviction among leveraged traders.
Regulatory headlines continue to churn. A hearing on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for July 17 in the U.S. House of Representatives, which market observers view as a potential catalyst for clearer domestic rules. Separately, President Trump urged the Senate to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, though no firm legislative timeline has emerged. For now, however, the macro environment — war headlines, looming U.S. consumer price index data, and a broadly risk-averse mood — is overwhelming any piecemeal good news from XRP’s own orbit.
The $1.04 support level is now the critical test. If it holds, the token may consolidate and wait for the macro fog to lift. If it breaks, the path to $0.78 becomes open — a level that would mark a fresh chapter in XRP’s long and often contradictory story.
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