SpaceX shares closed at $145.30 on Friday, a 4.5% decline that carved out a new all-time low since the company’s June IPO. The intraday floor of $145.07 left the stock 36% below its June 16 peak of $225.64, wiping away most of the post-listing euphoria and bringing the market capitalisation to roughly $1.91 trillion. Yet as the equity tumbled, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest did the opposite — it went on a buying spree.
The fund manager added 116,971 SpaceX shares across four ETFs in a single trading session. ARK’s flagship Innovation ETF (ARKK) picked up 68,914 shares, the Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) took 21,467, the Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) absorbed 17,896, and the Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) bought 8,694. The allocation was strikingly uniform: each purchase represented almost exactly 0.15% of the respective fund’s net asset value, pointing to a centrally coordinated decision rather than independent calls by separate portfolio managers. To fund the purchases, ARK trimmed positions in AMD and Deere & Co, selling roughly 0.10% and 0.06–0.09% of fund assets respectively.
Friday’s haul was not an isolated move. Earlier in the week, when the stock was hovering near a then-52-week low of $145.20 before settling at $148.26, ARK had already bought 112,046 shares via ARKK, plus additional tranches in its other vehicles. The cumulative accumulation fits a longer-term conviction: ARK published a pre-IPO valuation model in 2025 pegging SpaceX’s enterprise value at $2.5 trillion in its base case and as high as $3.1 trillion in an optimistic scenario by 2030. With the current market cap at roughly $1.91 trillion, the firm appears to view the pullback as a discount on a multi-trillion-dollar thesis.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The retreat comes just days after what should have been a bullish catalyst. On 7 July, SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100, triggering an estimated $4.3 billion in passive inflows from index-tracking funds such as the QQQ. Because only 3–5% of total shares are publicly tradable, the rebalancing created an unusually tight supply-demand dynamic. Yet the mechanical buying pressure could not offset growing unease about stretched valuation multiples — especially after the stock’s explosive post-IPO debut left it trading at levels that some on Wall Street view as detached from fundamentals.
That scepticism is loudest among a vocal minority. MoffettNathanson analyst Zhu has questioned why the stock continues to slide below its IPO price of $135 despite the index inclusion. One prominent hedge-fund manager went further, likening SpaceX to “the equivalent of Dogecoin,” arguing that even Bitcoin looks cheap by comparison. On the other side, Raymond James initiated coverage on 7 July with a “Strong Buy” rating, and Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas issued a bullish note the following day. The average 12-month price target among 27 analysts stands at $242.22 — implying roughly 67% upside — but the range is astonishingly wide, stretching from $62 to $800. Twenty-six analysts rate the stock a buy; only one recommends selling.
The next major event is earnings on 6 August 2026, which also marks the earliest possible release of insider shares under the lock-up agreement. Insiders will be allowed to sell up to 20% of their stakes on that date. An additional 10% can be unlocked if the stock closes at least 30% above the IPO price — that is, above $175.50 — on five out of ten consecutive trading days. The remaining shares will become tradable in stages through December 2026. Until then, the stock is caught between passive index-driven demand, a deeply divided analyst community, and questions about how quickly SpaceX’s ambitions in rocket launches, Starlink connectivity, and AI infrastructure can translate into earnings that justify a trillion-dollar-plus valuation.
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