Almonty Industries delivered its sharpest single-day gain in weeks on Friday, with shares climbing 12.4% to close at C$23.38 in Toronto. The catalyst: the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea has begun producing its first saleable concentrate, marking a shift from years of development to active revenue generation. The US-listed shares followed suit, rising nearly 11% on below-average volume — a measured response rather than euphoric buying.
The rally snaps a prolonged slide that had dragged the stock down roughly 30% from its April high of C$33.35. Even after Friday’s surge, the shares remain well below that level, and the weekly gain stands at just 1.04%, underscoring how deep the previous decline was. Technical indicators reflect a market that had become oversold: the 14-day RSI had dipped into deeply oversold territory before recovering to a neutral 48. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both clustered around C$25.40, now act as overhead resistance that the stock must clear to confirm a lasting turnaround.
Behind the volatility lies a tug-of-war between operational progress and financial drag. On one hand, Sangdong’s ramp-up is a tangible win — the mine is now feeding ore through the mill and producing tungsten concentrate, a key step that DA Davidson rewarded by lifting its price target from $25 to $33 US. That target implies roughly 41% upside from the current Canadian-dollar equivalent, assuming exchange-rate alignment. On the other hand, Almonty’s C$800 million convertible bond, issued in June with a 2.25% coupon and a conversion price of about $27.40 US, continues to overhang the stock. The bond has already contributed to the bottom line in a painful way: Almonty’s C$161.9 million net loss for fiscal 2025 included C$87.3 million in non-cash derivative revaluation charges, triggered paradoxically by the rising share price itself.
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Adding to the narrative, Almonty secured inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices, a move that typically drives passive fund inflows and raises the stock’s profile among institutional investors. The timing aligns with a broader push to position the company as a Western alternative to China’s dominance in tungsten supply. Oppenheimer analysts have highlighted strong current tungsten prices as direct tailwinds, while molybdenum — a by-product from such mining operations — saw its price surge 48.9% in May to roughly $65,503 per tonne, offering an additional revenue kicker.
Despite these positives, the balance sheet remains thin. Almonty carries high debt and a negative EBIT margin, with annual revenue of roughly €32.5 million that, while growing at about 25% compounded over three years, still leaves the company valued at €3.64 billion — a rich multiple that discounts many years of future earnings. Analysts remain broadly bullish: of six ratings tracked, four are “Buy,” one is “Strong Buy,” and only one recommends selling.
Long-term shareholders have fared well despite the recent turbulence. The stock has more than tripled over the past 12 months and is up 94% year-to-date, a gain that looks even starker from the 52-week low of C$4.36 last July. Yet with 30-day annualized volatility near 97%, the ride is unlikely to smooth out soon. The upcoming quarterly report, expected around mid-August, will offer the first hard evidence of whether Sangdong’s concentrate output translates into cash flow — and whether the convertible bond’s shadow will finally begin to lift.
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