On Friday, SAP shares closed at €138.50, a barely perceptible gain of 0.13% that did little to alter a brutal trajectory. The stock has shed more than 31% since the start of the year and stands a staggering 47% lower than twelve months ago. Two very different narratives are now pulling at the Walldorf-based software giant: an antitrust settlement that removed a regulatory sword of Damocles, and a geopolitical shock that sent shivers through global markets. Both are converging on a single focal point — the half-year results due on July 23.
The European Commission on Thursday accepted binding commitments from SAP to end a probe launched last September into whether the company abused its dominance in the market for maintenance and support of on-premise software. Investigators had suspected that SAP made it unnecessarily difficult for customers to switch to rival service providers. Under the settlement, which carries no fine but imposes ten-year obligations, SAP will simplify contract terminations, scrap reinstatement fees, and lower retroactive maintenance costs for returning customers. It will also offer an alternative licensing calculation method for support fees. EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera said the measures remove unfair restrictions that had raised costs and stifled competition. For its part, SAP cast the commitments as providing “greater clarity and certainty” for clients running complex on-premise environments.
Any relief from the antitrust resolution proved fleeting. The very same week, escalating hostilities in the Middle East triggered a sharp risk-off move in equities. Following reports of US strikes on Iranian targets, SAP tumbled 4.1% on Wednesday to €138.46, then slid another 1.2% on Thursday to €136.36. As a heavyweight in the DAX index — which itself ended Thursday up 0.9% at 25,118 points — SAP was among the hardest hit as investors rotated out of growth stories during the crisis. Iran’s retaliatory attacks on US military installations in neighbouring Gulf states added to the unease.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The stock now sits uncomfortably close to its 52-week low of €130.80, reached on June 25. At Friday’s close it was roughly 6% above that floor, but a chasm of nearly 48% separates it from the July 2025 high of €265.75. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish message: the 50-day moving average of €145.71 and the 200-day moving average of €178.70 both lie well above the current price, leaving SAP trading about 23% below its long-term trend. The relative strength index stands at 45.6, neutral territory, but the annualized 30-day volatility of 38.47% underscores how fragile the equilibrium is.
All eyes now turn to the July 23 release of second-quarter and first-half figures, due at 22:05 MESZ. Analysts remain divided: some see the battered share price as a buying opportunity, while others caution that ongoing cost-cutting measures and the margin implications of the antitrust commitments could keep a lid on earnings. Adding to the mix, SAP completed its acquisition of data-lakehouse provider Dremio on July 6 and confirmed product-area restructuring earlier this month. The earnings report will have to show whether the operational trend is stabilising — and whether the stock can finally start to claw back some of its year-to-date losses. If the €130.80 support line breaks, the months-long downtrend will look all but unbroken.
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