XRP is hovering just above $1.10, a level that has repeatedly repelled the token over the past year. The cryptocurrency is mounting its third attempt to break a descending trendline that has capped upside since mid-2025, while behind the scenes the XRP Ledger’s technical infrastructure is undergoing its most significant upgrade in months. The two developments are pulling in opposite directions, leaving traders to weigh a maturing network against deteriorating fund flows.
The token last changed hands at $1.10, up 0.84% on the day but still down more than 41% year to date. It sits roughly 8% above its 52-week low of $1.01, hit in late June, and nearly 70% below the July 2025 peak of $3.65. The 200-day moving average at $1.48 — about 25% above current levels — underscores the long-term bearish tilt that has persisted despite intermittent relief rallies.
The third attempt at a key trendline
On the charts, XRP is testing a falling resistance line that has defined its trajectory for the last twelve months. Two earlier tries failed: the first stalled near $1.30, the second collapsed entirely. This time, momentum indicators offer a more encouraging read. The relative strength index stands at 47.16, recovering from oversold territory in June, and has formed a bullish divergence — the RSI printed higher lows even as the price made lower lows, suggesting accumulation beneath the surface.
Yet the moving averages remain stacked against the token. The 20-day exponential moving average at $1.1119, the 50-day EMA at $1.1705, the 100-day at $1.2712, and the 200-day at $1.4801 all sit above the current price, creating a cascade of resistance. For traders, a daily close above $1.1119 would offer the first confirmation that this breakout attempt has more conviction than its predecessors. Until then, the demand zone between $1.00 and $1.05 is viewed as the floor.
Network upgrade passes critical validator threshold
While the price story remains inconclusive, the XRP Ledger’s technical roadmap is advancing. Version 3.2.0 of the core software has been installed by 89% of validators on the Unique Node List, surpassing the 80% activation threshold. But the upgrade requires that level of support to hold for a full two weeks before it formally takes effect. That confirmation window is still running.
A separate on-ledger vote for the amendment fixCleanup3_2_0, which bundles security fixes for newer features such as lending, vaults and multi-purpose tokens, is progressing more slowly. Ripple, the payments company behind the ledger’s early development, has already cast its vote. Validators that delay upgrading risk being placed in an “amendment-blocked” state and cut off from the network. A GitHub issue during the rollout — where a server log showed a new validator key while the running server still used an old key from the wallet database — was attributed to the migration process rather than a protocol flaw.
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ETF inflows hit a speed bump
Offsetting the technical progress, institutional demand for XRP exposure showed its first signs of weakness in weeks. Spot XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $7.29 million on July 8, according to weekly data through July 9, marking the largest single-day withdrawal since March. The outflow came entirely from the Bitwise XRP ETF, which had shown zero trading activity on the two preceding days.
That single day’s movement has put a nine-week streak of consecutive weekly inflows at risk. The final tally for Friday will determine whether the series snaps for the first time in ten weeks. Even if the streak ends, the cumulative picture remains robust: over the nine positive weeks, inflows totalled $1.48 billion. Seven XRP spot ETFs now operate in the U.S., managing roughly $1 billion in assets and holding 964.5 million XRP tokens.
Market backdrop and sponsorship controversy
The broader digital-asset market is not helping. The second quarter of 2026 delivered the third consecutive losing quarter for cryptocurrencies — the longest such stretch since the 2022 bear market. Institutional capital has rotated into AI stocks, and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Against that headwind, XRP’s ability to sustain ETF inflows for as long as it did stands out.
Away from the charts and fund flows, Ripple’s decision to sponsor the University of Kansas Jayhawks — placing XRP patches on the team’s jerseys — drew sharp criticism from parts of the XRP community this week. The move is part of a broader push into mainstream visibility, but it has done little to sway the token’s near-term price trajectory.
What to watch next
The coming days will be shaped by two parallel deadlines. On the price side, a daily close above $1.1119 would open the door to a run toward the $1.19–$1.23 zone, where some analysts see initial targets. A break below $1.09, however, could accelerate selling pressure and retest the $1.01 low. Meanwhile, the network upgrade needs to maintain validator support for the remainder of its two-week confirmation window, and the fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment must gather majority backing before validators risk being stranded on an obsolete version.
For now, XRP remains caught between a strengthening technical foundation and a market that is still weighing whether the third attempt at the trendline will be the one that sticks.
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