The outlook for Nel ASA has turned uniformly bearish. An assessment of 13 analyst houses covering the Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker finds not a single buy recommendation. Seven rate the stock a sell, while six advise hold — leaving the buy column entirely empty. The lack of any bullish voice is a striking shift from earlier in the year, when the shares had roughly doubled from their February lows before surrendering more than half of that gain.
The erosion in sentiment has been matched by price action. Over the past 30 days, the stock has fallen 16.67%, landing at €0.20 — roughly 45% below the 52-week high of €0.37 reached at the end of May. The 52-week low of €0.17, set in late February, sits just 19% below the current level. Technical indicators reinforce the pressure: the 14-day relative strength index stands at 34.2, inching toward oversold territory, while the annualised 30-day volatility of nearly 65% signals that the market is aggressively repricing risk.
The bearish camp has been hardening its stance. Even analysts who maintain a hold rating have slashed their price targets in rapid succession. Berenberg cut its target from 2.60 to 2.30 Norwegian kroner while staying neutral; Citi followed by lowering its target from 2.70 to 2.40 kroner. Morgan Stanley holds the most pessimistic view, dropping its target from 3.50 to 2.00 kroner and keeping an underweight rating. The consensus 12-month target across the 13 covering firms now stands at 2.12 kroner — roughly €0.18, implying a slight discount to the current share price, an unusual signal even given the negative ratings.
Three operational setbacks lie behind the reversal in confidence. Orders slumped sharply in the first quarter, surprising the market. Then CEO Håkon Volldal unexpectedly resigned to join packaging group Elopak, leaving a leadership gap. Most recently, the company reached a costly legal settlement with Iwatani Corporation over a dispute involving hydrogen refuelling stations in California. None of these events, taken individually, has been enough to push even a single analyst to a buy rating.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Investors are now looking to the second-quarter report, scheduled for release on 15 July, as a potential inflection point. Management is expected to discuss order backlog, operational progress, and any update on the CEO succession. The report is due at 07:00 CET, with a virtual presentation an hour later. For a stock trading below both its 50-day moving average of €0.26 and its 200-day moving average of €0.22, the data will need to show tangible stabilisation to halt the slide.
Amid the near-term gloom, the longer-term story still holds appeal. The Asia-Pacific green hydrogen equipment market is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 34.5% through 2033, reaching a volume of $29.4 billion. Electrolysers command a 61.5% share of that segment, and Nel, as an established electrolyser manufacturer, is positioned to participate — provided it can convert favourable macro trends into actual orders. China leads the region with a 46.7% market share, while India, growing at an expected 34.8% annually, represents the fastest-moving opportunity.
Whether Nel can benefit from that wave or watch it pass by may become clearer when the backlog figures are presented. For now, the stock remains caught between a consensus of scepticism and a market cap of roughly €371 million that the broader opportunity far exceeds. The 15 July results will not only test the technical floor but also determine whether the unanimous analyst caution proves prescient or premature.
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