ITM Power has at last cleared the final regulatory hurdle for its flagship Chronos electrolyser line, receiving formal confirmation of a £46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. The award, originally announced on 9 April 2026, had been stuck in a months-long political approval process. Combined with the £40 million equity injection from Great British Energy secured earlier in the spring, the total funding package for the project stands at £86.5 million. Yet the market greeted the milestone with a shrug: the stock fell 2.47% to €1.34 on Friday and has lost nearly 10% over the past week.
The money will fund an automated gigawatt-scale production line at the company’s existing Bessemer Park site in Sheffield, where ITM Power already runs the Trident line. The new Chronos platform is designed to be more efficient and cheaper to manufacture than current models, with dedicated equipment for electrode welding and catalyst-coated membrane production, plus cleanroom environments and in-house modular test systems. CEO Dennis Schulz has emphasised that the project builds on proven processes, reducing execution risk while accelerating the industrial rollout of green hydrogen.
Why the rally never materialised
Investor caution largely comes down to a stark division among analysts. Berenberg has raised its price target sharply from 110 to 200 pence, while Goldman Sachs maintains a sell rating. The consensus across all covering houses sits at just 131 pence — barely above current levels. That gap reflects a fundamental disagreement over how quickly ITM Power can convert its order book into revenue. A formal grant approval, in the market’s view, removes one uncertainty but does not guarantee that the factory will deliver on schedule or that customers will stick with their commitments.
The stock now trades 48% below its 52-week high of €2.58 set on 29 May. It sits 22% under its 50-day moving average of €1.72, while the 100-day average of €1.33 is virtually on top of the current price. The 30-day annualised volatility of 106.27% underscores how jittery the name remains. From a February low of €0.65, ITM Power rallied more than 106% to the May peak, then gave back roughly half those gains. The RSI of 41.3 points to neither overbought nor oversold territory — a neutral reading after weeks of violent swings.
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Improving fundamentals beneath the chop
Despite the lacklustre stock reaction, the operational picture has brightened. ITM Power recently raised its full-year revenue guidance to between £40 million and £43 million, citing better project execution. Of the £152 million order book, around 71% is now considered profitable — a sharp break from the loss-making legacy contracts that dogged earlier years. The balance sheet also looks solid: before the latest funding, management had forecast a year-end cash position of £170 million to £175 million, and the DESNZ grant and Great British Energy stake will bolster that further. Net debt remains low, giving the company financial breathing room as it scales up.
Beyond Sheffield, ITM Power is gaining traction on large-scale projects. The 200-megawatt plant in Lingen for RWE is a flagship example, and standardised platforms like ALPHA 50, Neptune V, and the upcoming Chronos line fit the growing demand for gigawatt-class hydrogen installations in Britain and Europe. The market capitalisation now stands at roughly €914 million.
Execution is everything from here
For a sustained share price recovery, the focus must now shift from funding milestones to manufacturing momentum. How quickly can the Chronos line ramp to its full 1-gigawatt capacity, and how much of the order book will translate into revenue over the coming quarters? Only tangible progress on the factory floor can narrow the gulf between Berenberg’s 200-pence optimism and Goldman Sachs’ caution. The financial and technical foundations are in place — the arduous part of building a profitable green hydrogen business is just beginning.
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