The gap between Hensoldt’s swelling order book and its sinking share price has become the central riddle for investors in Europe’s defence sector. While the company’s mission-critical sensors and electronics are in hot demand, the stock has shed roughly 29 percent over the past twelve months, trading at around €74 — a far cry from its 52-week peak of €115.10.
The tension is rooted in a fundamental mismatch of timing. Hensoldt’s first quarter of 2026 saw incoming orders more than double from a year earlier, fuelled by new contracts for the Schakal and Puma platforms, plus expanded work on Eurofighter radars. Management has poured €2 billion into boosting industrial capacity by 30 percent over the past four years, and plans to spend another €1 billion in the near term. Yet the market remains unimpressed, demanding concrete cash flows rather than political promises about European rearmament.
That scepticism was reinforced this week by a sharp reversal at MWB Research. After upgrading Hensoldt to ‘Hold’ at the end of June, the house cut its rating back to ‘Sell’, leaving the price target unchanged at €62 — the lowest among 16 analysts covering the stock. MWB’s rationale points to intensifying competition from Saab in the radar business and the lost F126 frigate programme, and views the recent bounce from a June low of €63.12 as an opportunity to exit. The move underscores how split the analyst community has become: the average target sits at €88.70, with optimists still calling €105.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Technically, the shares are under pressure. They remain below both the 50-day moving average of €76.92 and the 200-day line of €80.10, reflecting persistent selling momentum. The annualised volatility of nearly 58 percent highlights the market’s deep unease, even as Hensoldt’s strategic importance — backed by a German government minority stake — grows with each new defence spending pledge.
The next major catalyst arrives on 31 July 2026, when the company publishes its half-year results. That report will test whether the weight of new orders can translate into margin resilience amid fierce competition, or whether the doubts that have driven the stock’s decline are justified. For now, investors are caught between full order books and an empty trust account.
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