The numbers pouring out of SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company paint a stark picture: a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first three months of 2026 alone, on revenue of just $4.7 billion. Annualized, that puts the space-and-satellite giant on track to lose roughly $17 billion this year against about $19 billion in sales. The loss trajectory is accelerating — in 2025 the company burned $4.94 billion, a sharp reversal from the $756 million profit it posted in 2024. On a rolling twelve-month basis, SpaceX has now lost about $9.4 billion, while revenue has climbed to $19.3 billion.
The driver of this cash drain is a deliberate, all-in bet on artificial intelligence. In its IPO prospectus, SpaceX described itself not as a rocket or satellite company but as an AI concern, pegging its addressable market at $28.5 trillion. That ambition comes with a staggering price tag. Capital expenditure in the first quarter reached $10.1 billion, of which $7.7 billion went to AI-related projects. Last year, the AI segment generated just $3.2 billion in revenue, yet SpaceX paid $60 billion to acquire Anysphere, the startup behind the coding assistant Cursor. Management has warned that training and operating costs for AI models will continue to climb for the foreseeable future.
The financial hole has forced SpaceX to turn repeatedly to capital markets, and analysts question how long the tap can stay open. Morgan Stanley estimates the company will need external injections of $84 billion annually between 2027 and 2034 before free cash flow turns positive. Goldman Sachs pegs the cumulative debt requirement at roughly $270 billion by 2030. Both banks are among the most bullish on the stock, but they acknowledge that funding risk is the single biggest threat to the entire growth narrative.
The quiet period following SpaceX’s IPO ended this week, unleashing a flood of analyst coverage that reveals an extraordinary valuation schism. Among 29 analysts tracked, 20 rate the stock a strong buy, but price targets range from $75 to $800. Raymond James sits at the top with a $800 target and a “Strong Buy” rating, followed by Morgan Stanley at $300, Goldman Sachs at $205, and Citi at $200. At the bearish end, MoffettNathanson rates the stock only “Neutral” with a $131 target, calling the current market capitalization of roughly $2 trillion unsupported by any conventional valuation model. The firm describes the estimated addressable market of $30 trillion as “absurd” and expresses deep skepticism about Elon Musk’s plans for orbital data centers, noting that adding 100 gigawatts of capacity annually by 2029 would exceed today’s entire global data-center footprint.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
On the same day the analyst blitz began, SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 under fast-start rules that required only 15 trading days of eligibility. JPMorgan estimates the passive inflows from index funds at $4.3 billion. Yet the stock failed to hold its ground. It closed Tuesday at $149.47, down nearly 7% on the session, and has since slipped to $148.30 — just above its record low of $147.11 set on June 23. The all-time high of $225.64, reached on June 16, already feels distant.
The disconnect between institutional enthusiasm and the stock’s actual performance underscores the market’s unease. With free float still minuscule weeks after the record-breaking IPO, even small shifts in sentiment trigger outsized swings. SpaceX has not yet announced plans for a secondary offering, and until more shares become available, daily volatility will remain extreme.
All eyes now turn to early August, when SpaceX will publish its first quarterly report as a public company. Investors are looking for signs that AI-related losses are stabilizing — or that the gap between the Starlink and rocket businesses, which generate solid margins and growth, and the cash-hungry AI segment is widening further. For now, the core question facing the company is simple: can its $60 billion AI wager ever pay off, or will the capital markets eventually close the door on a vision that costs $17 billion a year to sustain?
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