Almonty Industries has crossed the line from mine developer to tungsten producer, yet the market response reads as anything but a celebration. The company’s Sangdong project in South Korea’s Gangwon province began processing ore on July 1, 2026, triggering the first real revenue-generating phase in its history. But the stock, which trades on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, has given back nearly 40% of its value since notching a record high of C$33.35 in the spring, now languishing around C$20.
The disconnect between operational progress and stock performance boils down to a single, massive overhang: a C$800 million convertible note offering that closed in late June. The 2.25% senior notes due 2031 were heavily oversubscribed, with full exercise of the overallotment option. The initial conversion price sits at roughly US$27.40 per share, well above the current trading level, but the prospect of future dilution has soured short-term sentiment even as the company begins to turn its stockpile into cash.
Almonty starts production with a significant buffer. Approximately 139,700 tonnes of stockpiled ore grade 0.25% tungsten trioxide sits in the run-of-mine pad, representing a gross value of roughly US$68 million at prevailing metal prices. That inventory gives the mill about 2.6 months of throughput in the initial operating phase, providing ample time to optimize the blending and processing circuits.
The convertible’s structure includes a provision that allows Almonty to settle conversions in cash rather than shares, which could mitigate dilution for existing holders. Still, the market’s immediate reaction has been to price in the worst-case scenario, a dynamic amplified by the company’s concurrent inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices on June 29. The annual rebalance brought higher trading volumes and institutional attention, but it also coincided with broader market turbulence that added to the stock’s volatility.
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On the supply side, the timing of Sangdong’s ramp-up could hardly be more favorable. China continues to throttle its tungsten exports, tightening a market that already faces structural deficits. Almonty is positioning itself as a critical Western supplier of the refractory metal, which is essential for defence, industrial tooling, and electronics. The company is also advancing a downstream tungsten oxide plant in nearby Yeongwol to capture more value from its concentrate.
Parallel efforts at the Sangdong molybdenum project are gaining momentum. Approximately 37% of an extensive drilling programme has been completed, and initial results are described as encouraging for the long-term diversification of the asset base.
For now, Almonty’s immediate challenge is convincing investors that the convertible will not permanently dilute their stakes. As the mill turns stockpiled ore into concentrate and that concentrate into revenues, the cash flow from operations should steadily chip away at the dilution anxiety. The next few earnings reports will offer the first real test of whether the market can focus on the metal in the ground rather than the paper in the financing documents.
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