Xiaomi’s stock surged more than 9% on Wednesday to €2.82–€2.85, its biggest single-day gain in weeks, as investors reacted to the official unveiling of the company’s first range-extender electric vehicle series, the Sky Nomad. Yet beneath the headline jump, the stock remains deep in the red for 2026: down roughly 37% year-to-date and still 56% below its 52-week high of €6.51 set last September.
The rally, which pushed the stock off its recent year-low of €2.34, reflects cautious optimism about Xiaomi’s pivot toward a broader EV portfolio. The 5.3-metre Sky Nomad, scheduled for launch in the second half of 2026, combines a 1.5-litre turbo petrol engine with a battery pack to deliver over 1,500 kilometres of total range, with a pure-electric range of 500 kilometres. The move ends the company’s single-model strategy centred on the SU7 sedan and targets the lucrative family-SUV segment, directly challenging incumbents such as Li Auto.
But the same forces that have battered Xiaomi’s stock are far from resolved. The company is fighting on two fronts simultaneously. In its core smartphone business, rising memory-chip prices continue to compress margins — adjusted profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 slumped 24% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the fledgling EV division, which swung to a profit in Q3 and Q4 2025, slipped back into the red in the first quarter of 2026 with an operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan and a gross margin that fell to 20.1% from 23.2% a year earlier. The margin deterioration reflected both higher component costs and a product-mix shift toward cheaper variants.
Delivery numbers from the EV unit provide one bright spot. In June 2026, Xiaomi EV broke the 30,000-unit mark for the third consecutive month, following 33,000 deliveries in May. The company has set an ambitious full-year target of 550,000 vehicles and has already shipped 169,000 in the first half. Yet the ramp-up alone does not guarantee profitability. The Sky Nomad’s price range of up to 450,000 yuan places it in a fiercely contested segment where price wars are common, threatening to squeeze margins from day one.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
Analyst sentiment has soured in recent months. J.P. Morgan cut its price target in February to HK$38 from HK$45, keeping a “Neutral” rating on weaker smartphone margins and slower EV rollouts. Jefferies went further, downgrading the stock from “Buy” to “Hold” in March, citing an expected 31% drop in global smartphone shipments for the full year. Both banks see structural cost pressures as unresolved.
Technically, the stock remains trapped in a downtrend. It trades 6.7% below its 50-day moving average of €3.02 and 28% below the 200-day line at €3.92. The RSI of 53.8 sits in neutral territory, offering no clear directional signal. The near-term resistance at €3.02 is critical: a sustained break above that level could open the path toward €4.00, while a failure risks a retest of the €2.34 trough. The annualised 30-day volatility of 42.6% points to sharp swings in either direction.
Xiaomi’s management is betting that scale from the EV division will eventually offset the chip-driven headwinds in smartphones. For that to happen, the company needs three things to align: EV deliveries comfortably above one million units per year, an AIoT business increasingly focused on high-margin services, and continued smartphone expansion in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America. The upcoming quarterly report, due in late July, will be a key test — particularly whether gross margins in the EV segment can recover from their first-quarter slide. Until then, the stock is likely to oscillate in a volatile range, caught between the promise of a new product line and the reality of an earnings crunch that has yet to ease.
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