Allianz shares pushed to a fresh yearly high of 423.90 euros on Tuesday, only to slip back marginally to 422.90 euros. The Munich-based insurer has now delivered a 21% gain so far in 2024, making it one of the DAX’s best performers. But while the price action appears unstoppable, a technical warning light has begun flashing: the Relative Strength Index has surged to 80, deep in overbought territory. Short-term profit-taking looks increasingly probable, especially after a 13% rally in the past 30 days alone.
Yet one analyst sees nothing but room to run. Michael Huttner of Berenberg has reaffirmed a price target of 684 euros on Allianz — implying a potential 60% upside from current levels. His conviction rests on a structural undervaluation of European composite insurers. The market is pricing the sector at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 12 for 2028, Huttner argues, while a multiple of 20 is more justified. If he is right, the current rally is just a warm-up act.
Underpinning near-term price action is a relentless share buyback programme. Since mid-March, Allianz has scooped up roughly 3.66 million of its own shares from the open market, tightening the available float and creating a persistent demand floor. The pace accelerated in early July, when the company repurchased another 294,500 shares in a single week. The buyback has effectively cushioned any downside, even as the RSI signals exhaustion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Allianz?
On the fundamental side, the insurer delivered a record first quarter. Operating profit jumped nearly 7% to around 4.5 billion euros, powered by a double-digit earnings surge in the property and casualty division. The solvency ratio stands at a comfortable 221%, giving Allianz ample capital firepower to continue returning cash to shareholders while pursuing growth. Dividend estimates for the current year stand at roughly 18.50 euros per share, underpinning the stock’s reputation as a reliable payout vehicle.
That financial strength is funding strategic expansion beyond the balance sheet. CEO Oliver Bäte is pushing further into Asia, with the company reportedly evaluating the acquisition of HSBC’s insurance operations in Singapore and the asset management arm of United Overseas Bank. At the same time, Allianz has forged a partnership with AI developer Anthropic to extract efficiency gains in its core businesses.
For now, the average analyst price target of around 422 euros has already been exceeded, leaving many investors watching the next catalyst — the upcoming quarterly results. If operational momentum holds, Berenberg’s bull case gains credibility. But near-term technical risk is real: a sustained break below 420 euros could trigger a meaningful consolidation, as the overbought condition unwinds. Allianz thus finds itself at a crossroads — cheered by record buybacks and fundamental resilience, yet shadowed by a market that may need to catch its breath.
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