A familiar pattern has re-emerged on European bourses: when chip stocks stumble, software names catch the bid. SAP shares climbed 2.68% on Tuesday to €144.66, bringing the seven-day gain to 6.98%. The move, however, does little to mask the brutal year-to-date performance — the stock remains 28.39% lower since January, a decline that has tested the patience of even long-term holders.
The catalyst for the latest rotation came from an unlikely source. Samsung Electronics posted a record operating profit in the second quarter of 2026, delivering 19 times the prior-year figure. Yet the market yawned: the Korean giant’s shares briefly slumped 10%. Investors are growing skeptical that the AI infrastructure boom will sustain the breakneck growth rates priced into hardware plays. That skepticism has sent capital flowing back into enterprise software, leaving SAP as a primary beneficiary.
This is not the first such pivot. A similar pattern unfolded in late June, when a delayed AI industry event triggered a relief rally in stocks like SAP and ServiceNow. The current rotation, therefore, fits into a sequence of tactical shifts rather than a structural change. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka cautions that weakness in the AI trade is likely to be bought, while rebounds in laggard software stocks may prove short-lived, much as they did in March.
Behind the short-term noise, SAP’s management is laying the groundwork for a very different kind of recovery. The Walldorf-based company is accelerating its push into the “autonomous enterprise,” with technology chief Philipp Herzig laying out a roadmap that includes the launch of 50 new AI assistants by the third quarter of 2026, plus roughly 200 AI agents integrated into existing software modules. The centerpiece is the SAP Business AI Platform, which ties together existing assets such as the Data Cloud and Signavio.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The pricing model represents a sharp break with tradition. SAP is introducing so-called “AI Units” — consumption-based charges that depend on actual usage and measurable value delivered to customers. This pay-per-outcome approach is designed to counter the enormous infrastructure costs that hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are collectively spending — an estimated $725 billion this year, with Microsoft alone committing $190 billion while simultaneously cutting thousands of jobs. By monetizing productivity gains directly, SAP hopes to demonstrate that the promised AI margin uplift translates into real cash flow. Gartner analysts expect productivity improvements of up to 34% in certain sectors from such tools.
Despite the strategic pivot, the stock remains technically fragile. SAP trades 19.71% below its 200-day moving average of €180.17, confirming that the longer-term downtrend is still intact. The gap to the 50-day average has narrowed to just 1.07%, and the relative strength index stands at 53.4 — a neutral reading that leaves room for further moves in either direction. Some market participants view the 30% drawdown from the January peak as an entry point, arguing that the selloff in software names has been overdone relative to hardware.
For the rally to sustain its momentum, SAP must convince global enterprise customers that the new AI agents and consumption pricing deliver a measurable financial return. If the upcoming quarterly results show that the “AI Units” are gaining traction, the current weakness may well be remembered as a rare window of opportunity. Should the chip rally resume, however, the rotation could reverse just as quickly as it began.
Ad
SAP Stock: Buy or Sell?! New SAP Analysis from July 7 delivers the answer:
The latest SAP figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for SAP investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 7.
SAP: Buy or sell? Read more here...
