XRP finds itself at a crossroads where blistering institutional demand and sobering chart signals are pulling in opposite directions. The token has clawed back from a 52-week low of $1.01 set on June 26, but the recovery keeps bumping into a wall near $1.20 — a level that coincides with the 50-day moving average and has capped previous rallies.
The conflicting narrative has intensified this week. On one side, US spot XRP ETFs have now recorded net inflows for nine consecutive weeks, the latest tally adding $17.19 million. On the other, technical analysts warn that the token remains trapped well below its medium-term trendlines, with the 200-day average sitting at $1.48 and the 50-day at $1.20.
Monday’s price action epitomized the struggle. XRP broke through a key resistance zone with unusually heavy volume — trading surged to roughly 82 million XRP around 10 p.m. UTC Sunday, about 207% above the 24-hour average. The token touched an intraday high of $1.158 before sellers pushed it back toward $1.146. By Tuesday, XRP had slipped another 2.33% to $1.13, though on a weekly basis it still shows a 7.77% gain.
For traders, the session was less a confirmed breakout and more an early test. The hourly chart weakened after XRP failed to reclaim the $1.155 mark, and price has since oscillated in a tight band between $1.145 and $1.151. The critical question is whether buyers can punch through the $1.17–$1.20 zone — levels that have previously acted as hard ceilings.
Adding to the cautious view is the MVRV ratio, which stands at minus 45% over the 30-day horizon and minus 47% over 365 days. That means the vast majority of recent and yearly buyers are sitting on losses, and even steady ETF inflows have not been enough to meaningfully lift the average cost basis of existing holders.
Institutional currents shift beneath the surface
A deeper look at institutional ownership reveals a dramatic repositioning. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs reported XRP ETF holdings from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares worth nearly $154 million, making the bank the largest institutional holder of XRP ETFs. But the 13F filing for the first quarter of 2026, released in mid-May, showed zero XRP ETF shares as of March 31 — not reduced, but completely liquidated.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
At its peak, Goldman held roughly 73% of all institutional XRP ETF assets. The exit, however, did not disrupt the broader inflow trend. In the very week the filing became public, US spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows of about $60.5 million, the strongest weekly figure of 2026. Cumulative inflows since the product’s launch in November 2025 have now surpassed $1.39 billion.
Goldman’s retreat was not limited to XRP. The bank also reported zero positions in Solana-linked ETFs while maintaining its stakes in Bitcoin and Ether funds, as well as shares of crypto companies. Instead, Goldman expanded its positions in Circle, Galaxy Digital, and Coinbase by up to 249%, signaling a strategic pivot toward trading, payments, and stablecoin businesses. (It is worth remembering that 13F filings are snapshots taken at quarter-end and may not reflect current holdings.)
Network growth and a stablecoin milestone
On-chain activity continues to deliver more encouraging signals. New wallet creation has accelerated, with roughly 5,000 wallets springing up in a single day recently. Meanwhile, Ripple’s native stablecoin RLUSD has seen its distribution on the XRP Ledger swell to $810 million, surpassing the amount held on the competing Ethereum blockchain. That shift underscores a rise in on-chain utility for the network.
US spot XRP ETFs now manage roughly $1 billion in assets, providing a steady source of buy pressure. The combination of ETF flows and expanding network activity has not yet translated into a sustained price breakout, but it has kept XRP from falling back toward its recent lows.
The next catalyst: inflation data
The immediate focal point for traders is the US inflation report due on July 14. Softer-than-expected data could strengthen the case for a rate cut — Citigroup already expects the Federal Reserve’s first move in October — and that would likely boost risk appetite across crypto markets. Until then, the $1.20 resistance level remains the token’s hardest ceiling, and the price action around $1.14 will determine whether Monday’s breakout attempt was a false dawn or the beginning of a more durable rally.
Ad
XRP Stock: Buy or Sell?! New XRP Analysis from July 6 delivers the answer:
The latest XRP figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for XRP investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 6.
XRP: Buy or sell? Read more here...
