Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC has taken a contrarian bet on Ondas Holdings, acquiring 520,089 shares worth roughly $4.7 million. The SEC filing, dated July 4, 2026, reveals the fund built its position from scratch during a period of intense selling pressure — a move that stands in sharp contrast to the stock’s recent trajectory.
The autonomous systems provider closed Friday at €6.65, a modest 2.62% gain on the day. But the longer-term picture tells a different story. Over the past 30 days, the shares have shed 33.63% of their value, and the year-to-date decline stands at 29.18%. Zooming out to 12 months, however, paints a more dramatic recovery: the stock has surged 315.63% from the €1.50 low notched in July 2025. The current price sits almost 49% below the January 2026 high of €13.02.
Operational Momentum Remains Strong
None of the recent weakness stems from operational setbacks. Ondas racked up over $150 million in orders during the second quarter alone, with June contributing $40 million in contracts for autonomous defense systems — including counter-drone and loitering munition platforms for government and military clients. The company’s Sentrycs subsidiary also announced a tie-up with Lockheed Martin in June, embedding its cyber-over-RF drone-defence technology into the defence giant’s Sanctum C-UAS platform.
First-quarter results underscored the rapid growth. Revenue hit a record $50.1 million, while pro-forma backlog swelled to $457 million. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to at least $390 million, and the balance sheet boasted $1.48 billion in cash after a capital raise early in 2026.
Expansion continues through M&A as well. Ondas agreed to acquire drone specialist Cyberhawk for approximately $125 million, a deal expected to close in the third quarter. Cyberhawk is on track to contribute $45 million in annual revenue, the bulk of it from long-term software subscriptions. Investors also await details on a $140 million military construction project that could provide another catalyst when second-quarter results are published in August.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ondas Holdings?
Sell-Off Traced to Share Overhang
The disconnect between operational strength and stock performance comes down to supply. Existing shareholders — particularly those who received shares in the Omnisys acquisition — have been steadily offloading their positions. A supplement to the securities prospectus registered additional shares for possible resale, adding to the overhang and creating selling pressure that has eclipsed the positive headlines.
Technical indicators confirm the strain. The relative strength index sits at 36.7, deep in oversold territory. The stock trades roughly 20% below its 50-day moving average of €8.34 and nearly 15% beneath the 200-day line of €7.81.
Yet not all institutional money is heading for the exits. Avion Wealth doubled its stake to 4,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2025. IFP Advisors Inc. boosted its holding by 231.4% in the third quarter, and Global Retirement Partners LLC added 30% in the fourth quarter. These moves suggest some funds see value beneath the current noise.
Market chatter now revolves around whether Ondas is undervalued relative to its fundamental trajectory. The answer hinges on how quickly the share overhang from legacy stakeholders dissipates — a process that could accelerate as the Cyberhawk deal closes and the next earnings report shifts the narrative back to revenue and backlog.
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