Almonty Industries has finally crossed the line from mine developer to active producer, and the market gave a measured nod of approval. The tungsten miner’s stock edged up 4% on Friday to C$23.14, snapping a weeks-long slide that had rattled shareholders. Yet the relief rally barely scratches the surface of the challenges and opportunities now converging on the company.
The heart of the story is South Korea’s Sangdong mine. Processing equipment began chewing through the first ore from the stockpile in early July, marking the official start of commercial-scale operations. That stockpile currently holds roughly 140,000 tonnes of run-of-mine material, which CEO Lewis Black values at around US$68 million at prevailing tungsten prices. The executive described the startup as a historical inflection point, noting that years of development work are finally being tested against a highly favourable pricing backdrop.
But the real test begins now. The plant must demonstrate consistent uptime and efficient conversion of that stockpile into saleable tungsten concentrate. Success would chip away at the company’s ongoing operating losses — a key concern for analysts who remain deeply split on the stock’s fair value. TipRanks currently cites a consensus price target of C$25, barely above Friday’s close, suggesting the market has already priced in a successful ramp-up. Other models swing wildly, from just a few cents to more than C$60, reflecting the wide divergence in opinion over operational risk and potential share dilution.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The recent price action underscores the tension. Despite Friday’s bounce, Almonty shares still sit roughly 30% below their April high and have lost nearly 17% over the past month. The stock recently slipped below its 50-day moving average of C$26.10, a technical signal that has added to near-term caution. However, the longer-term picture remains powerful: the stock has surged 245% over the past twelve months and is up 92% year-to-date. The 200-day moving average at C$18.34 continues to underpin the broader uptrend, and as long as that level holds, the overall recovery rally remains intact.
A separate but equally important catalyst arrived in late June when Almonty was added to the Russell 1000 Index. The inclusion forces passive funds managing enormous pools of capital to adjust their portfolios, generating structural demand for the shares. That liquidity boost comes at a critical moment as the company shifts focus from development milestones to cash flow generation.
The next few weeks will be decisive. Management must prove that Sangdong can run reliably at scale while converting the existing ore stockpile into hard sales. If the plant delivers, operating losses should narrow and investor confidence could rebuild. If not, the volatility that has pushed the stock’s annualised figure to nearly 91% will remain the dominant theme. For now, Almonty has finally turned ore into throughput — the market wants to see that throughput turn into profit.
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