The euphoria surrounding Nebius Group has given way to a more jagged reality. Shares of the AI-infrastructure company lurched into the week, shedding more than 8% as news broke that Meta Platforms — its largest customer — is quietly building its own cloud infrastructure under the project name “Meta Compute.” By Friday, the stock had clawed back 2.77% to close at €194, but that still leaves it roughly 26% below the all-time high set in June. The annualized 30-day volatility sits at a staggering 105%, a clear signal that investors are bracing for either a sharp rebound or a deeper correction.
The numbers behind the drama are enormous. Nebius is sitting on a contract backlog worth $46 billion, of which $27 billion comes from Meta alone and another $17 billion from Microsoft. That kind of order book usually inspires confidence. But when your biggest client starts plotting a vertical move into your own business, the calculus changes overnight. The market now has to weigh whether those contracts are ironclad or whether a strategic pivot by Meta could leave Nebius scrambling for replacement revenue.
Bears have plenty of ammunition. The valuation is already stretched to eye-watering levels — the forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 stands at 81, a massive premium to most software names. To fuel its breakneck expansion, Nebius is burning cash at an alarming rate. The company plans to invest up to $25 billion this year alone, with a target of reaching three gigawatts of capacity by year-end. That buildout is partly funded by nearly $4 billion raised through convertible bonds, adding a layer of debt that leaves little room for error. DA Davidson caught attention this week by downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral, a rare cautionary note among the analyst community.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Yet the bull case remains surprisingly intact for now. Six analysts rate the stock a Buy, four say Hold, and none recommend selling. The average price target sits at $237.38, implying upside even after the recent selloff. Goldman Sachs, for its part, has held firm on its positive outlook. Optimists point to Nebius’s deep ties with Nvidia, which gives it early access to coveted next-generation chips. They also highlight the massive Finnish facility under construction in Lappeenranta — a $10 billion, 310-megawatt data center dedicated to artificial intelligence, one of the largest in Europe. The argument is simple: demand for compute capacity still far outstrips supply, and if Meta backs away from its contracts, Nebius can quickly reallocate those clusters to other hungry buyers.
Technically, the chart is sending mixed signals. The stock is trading just barely above its 50-day moving average of roughly €190. A decisive break below that level could open the door to a drop toward the 100-day line near €145, with the 200-day average at €115.82 acting as a deeper safety net. The wide gap between the current price and that longer-term average — some 67% — underscores just how much optimism is baked into the shares.
The next major test will come on July 8 and 9, when Nebius hosts its industry summit and unveils a new software platform designed to attract customers beyond the hyperscaler crowd. If management can demonstrate a credible path to diversifying its client base, the stock may begin to decouple from Meta’s shadow. Until then, the market is stuck watching a high-wire act between a $46 billion backlog and a single client that could become its fiercest rival.
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