The clock is ticking toward a pivotal July 9 board meeting at Volkswagen, and investors are bracing for a potential storm. The automaker’s shares closed at €70.18 on the day of a leaked works council memo — just a whisker above the 52-week low of €70.02 — after management signalled that the existing restructuring plan falls short. What that shortfall actually means in terms of jobs, costs, or plant closures has not been spelled out, leaving the market in a fog of uncertainty.
The memo, dated June 29 and reviewed by Reuters, confirms that the board has told employee representatives the already-agreed job cuts are insufficient. Under the December 2024 deal with IG Metall and the works council, Volkswagen planned to shed more than 35,000 positions by 2030, delivering annual sustainable cost savings of over €15 billion, including €1.5 billion in labour cost relief alone. By hinting that those measures no longer suffice, management has thrown the entire recovery timeline into doubt. The fear is that the headcount reduction could balloon to as many as 100,000, with four German plants — Hannover, Zwickau, Emden, and Audi’s Neckarsulm site — reportedly on the chopping block.
Operating pressures leave little room for manoeuvre. In the first quarter of 2026, Volkswagen sold two million vehicles globally, a 7% decline year-on-year. Sales in China slumped 20%, and North American deliveries fell 9%. Over the past decade, profits in China have plunged more than 80%, bumping the company from market leader to third place. For the full year, the group expects revenue growth of just 0–3% and an operating margin between 4.0% and 5.5% — a far cry from the double-digit targets that once underpinned investor confidence.
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Alongside the restructuring push, Volkswagen is exploring two high-profile asset sales to raise fresh capital for its electric-vehicle pivot. The group is reportedly evaluating a sale of motorcycle brand Ducati — a move unions have blocked before — and is also weighing an initial public offering of Lamborghini. A Lamborghini listing would echo the successful Porsche IPO in 2022, which flooded the company’s coffers with liquidity. Whether the board can push these disposals past powerful labour representatives remains an open question, but the need to fund the EV transition is acute.
The stock’s technical picture underscores the anxiety. The relative strength index stands at 19 — deep in oversold territory — and the shares trade roughly 25% below the 200-day moving average. Over the past 30 days, the stock has lost nearly 23% of its value; year to date, the decline is almost 34%. The 52-week high of €109.10, touched in December 2025, now seems a distant memory.
All eyes are on the July 9 meeting, where management is expected to present concrete proposals to the supervisory board. With politicians and union leaders already girding for battle, the outcome could determine whether Volkswagen’s turnaround gains traction or descends into a prolonged confrontation. For now, investors are left guessing — and the share price is paying the price for that uncertainty.
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