Hensoldt’s chief executive stepped in to buy shares at the year’s lowest point, a vote of confidence that comes as Germany’s defence ministry pulls the plug on a major frigate programme – a contract the electronics specialist had already banked a chunk of.
Oliver Dörre snapped up Hensoldt stock worth nearly €64,000 in late June, paying an average of €63.87 apiece. That price matched the session’s low, though the stock later touched a deeper trough of €63.12 before staging a modest recovery. The purchase sends a clear signal that management sees value even as a multi-million-euro radar order unravels.
The contract in question covers the TRS-4D maritime surveillance radar for the F126 frigate class, a job Hensoldt originally valued at more than €200 million. But Berlin has swapped plans and will now buy MEKO A-200 vessels from Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems instead. Hensoldt, however, has already recognised over a third of that contract value as revenue, and the remaining sums due this year are only in the double-digit millions. The company says its short- and medium-term forecasts remain intact while it hammers out settlement terms with partners.
The radar itself is no exotic prototype. It belongs to an established product family already deployed on other German and Brazilian warships, meaning Hensoldt can pivot quickly. The group is already in talks with Thales Netherlands about future modernisation projects on the new frigates.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Since the purchase, the shares have climbed to around €67.80-€67.94, still a far cry from the start of the year. On a calendar-year basis the stock is down roughly 11%, while over the past twelve months the decline has widened to nearly 30%. Technically, the bounce from the June low – about 7% so far – puts the stock on a potential path toward the 50-day moving average as the next resistance level.
Analysts at DZ Bank see room for a sustained recovery and reiterate a buy recommendation with a price target of €90, implying significant upside from current levels. They view the stable guidance as a sign of strength in the face of a political setback.
Investors will get a clearer picture on July 31, when Hensoldt publishes its half-year results. The management will have to quantify the impact of the changed procurement landscape – and either confirm the earnings outlook with hard numbers or adjust it. That report could determine whether the insider’s bet was a one-off vote of faith or the start of a broader turnaround.
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