The chasm between BYD’s operational momentum and its share price has widened to a point that caught Citi’s attention. The bank placed the Chinese electric-vehicle giant on a 30-day positive catalyst watch late last week, betting that a looming earnings release could finally bridge the gap between strong fundamentals and a stock wallowing near its 52-week trough.
May delivery data provided the trigger. BYD shipped 383,000 vehicles to dealers last month, a 19.4% jump from April. Export volumes were the standout: 161,000 units left China in May, an 80% surge year-on-year that underscores the company’s accelerating international push. Citi’s analysts see that trajectory as durable, not a one-off burst.
The market has yet to share their confidence. BYD’s shares closed at €8.16 on Friday, barely above the 52-week low of €8.08 touched on June 26. The stock has shed roughly a quarter of its value since January and sits almost 45% below the July 2025 high of €14.80. Technical indicators scream oversold — the relative strength index is at 19.3 — but the direction remains uncertain.
While the share price languishes, the company is pressing ahead with an aggressive product assault aimed at every corner of the market. The latest salvo is the Linghui M9, a seven-seat van priced at 188,800 yuan (around $27,750) and targeting corporate fleets and business travellers. It uses BYD’s fifth-generation hybrid powertrain, delivering a combined range of 1,100 kilometres and 160 kilometres on battery alone from a 37-kWh pack. The M9 is the third Linghui model in four months, a pace that signals BYD’s intent to dominate the commercial-vehicle niche.
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Next week brings another milestone. On July 2, BYD will unveil the Sealion 08, a limousine that will serve as the new flagship of its Ocean series. The all-electric version rides on an 800-volt architecture and can add 400 kilometres of range in just five minutes of charging. A plug-in hybrid variant will follow. Top trims are expected to cost around a quarter of a million yuan.
Software and self-driving technology are evolving in parallel. Chairman Wang Chuanfu met Horizon Robotics founder Yu Kai on Monday to test a new driver-assistance system in a BYD Seal. BYD currently saves between 1,500 and 4,000 yuan per vehicle by using external chips from partners like Horizon. Longer term, it is developing its own Xuanji A3 processor, due in 2027 and set to debut under the premium Denza marque.
The push into the van segment builds on existing momentum. In May, the Denza D9 topped its class in China with nearly 8,700 units sold, narrowly beating the Toyota Sienna. That performance is part of a broader trend that Citi believes will lift second-quarter net profit to between 10.3 billion and 12.4 billion yuan, excluding currency effects and the BYD Electronic subsidiary. The consensus estimate stands at 8 billion to 9 billion yuan.
For now, the stock remains hostage to sentiment. But Citi’s catalyst watch hinges on the Q2 numbers, expected in July, to close the gap between perception and reality. If the profit beat materialises, BYD’s deep valuation and the flurry of new product launches could finally shake the market out of its gloom.
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