The hydrogen sector has never looked more bifurcated. While companies with a direct line to the red-hot data centre market are raking in multi-hundred-megawatt contracts and seeing their share prices soar, Nel ASA finds itself trapped in a downward spiral that has erased over 40% of its market value in the past month alone. On Friday, the Norwegian electrolyser specialist fell another 3.55% to €0.20, bringing its loss over 30 days to more than 40%. The stock now sits 46% below its 52-week high of €0.37 and dangerously close to the year’s low of €0.17.
The contrast with the rest of the industry could not be starker. FuelCell Energy this week announced a strategic supply deal for up to 380 megawatts of clean baseload power for data centres, with an initial payment already received for 30 MW and deliveries set to start this year. That agreement sent the company’s shares higher and prompted Canaccord to upgrade the stock from hold to buy with a $30 price target. Meanwhile, Swedish green steel venture Stegra closed a €1.4 billion financing round, and OMV secured €123 million for a new plant. All of these successes underscore the market’s willingness to back hydrogen plays that can demonstrate near-term revenue visibility.
Nel’s own story has taken a far grimmer turn. Chief executive Håkon Volldal resigned in mid-June to pursue another opportunity, triggering an 8.65% share price drop on the day. Though the six-month notice period provides some time for a handover, the leadership vacuum comes at a critical juncture. Nel’s first-quarter order intake collapsed by 73%, revenue fell to just 148 million Norwegian kroner, and the company has already cut roughly 20% of its Norwegian workforce. The net loss per share deepened to minus 0.08 NOK. Analysts are unsparing: the consensus from 13 covering the stock is a sell rating.
That bleak operating backdrop is compounded by a hostile macro environment. The PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 4.1% in May, fuelling anxiety over further interest rate hikes and sending investors fleeing risk assets. The Oslo benchmark opened weaker on Friday, while Asia’s Nikkei slid more than 3% on tech-sector losses. For speculative growth names like Nel, the macro headwind is especially punishing.
Technically, the situation is precarious. The relative strength index has fallen to 31.9, brushing the oversold threshold, but the price trend remains unambiguously bearish. If the share price breaks below the €0.17 52-week floor, a fresh wave of chart-based selling pressure is likely. Without any operational momentum to counterbalance the technical deterioration, buyer resistance would probably prove feeble.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Yet within Nel’s own operations, a potential bright spot exists—if the company can execute. It recently unveiled a new alkaline pressure electrolyser platform that promises total installed costs below $1,450 per kilowatt, less than half the typical $3,000-plus benchmark. The European Union has backed the industrialisation of this technology at the Herøya site with up to €135 million from the Innovation Fund, covering as much as 60% of eligible costs. The problem is that commercialising this breakthrough requires a CEO who can translate lab promise into market orders, and that person has just walked out the door. The next test comes on July 15, when Nel releases its half-year results.
The broader hydrogen landscape illustrates why Nel is struggling while peers thrive. FuelCell Energy and Bloom Energy, both focused on fuel cells for data centres, have secured long-term contracts with concrete delivery timelines. Bloom’s stock has surged more than 220% year to date on the back of a 2.8 GW Oracle deal and a $2.6 billion Nebius agreement. In contrast, electrolyser manufacturers like Nel and HydrogenPro depend on green hydrogen projects that require regulatory approvals, subsidy certainty, and slow final investment decisions. HydrogenPro’s plight is even more dire: it raised just 15 million Norwegian kroner through a private placement at an eye-watering 76% discount to the prior close, with shares now trading at €0.07 after a 75% monthly plunge.
Plug Power occupies a middle ground, with a 22% revenue increase in the first quarter and improving gross margins, but it remains lossmaking and relies on European project wins. Its stock is also down 40% from its 52-week high.
For Nel, the near-term outlook hinges on finding a CEO capable of reviving the order pipeline and capitalising on the cost advantage of its new platform. Without that, the stock is left to drift in a sector that has decisively split into two speed lanes: one powered by data centre demand, the other stalled in the queue for policy and project finance.
Ad
Nel ASA Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Nel ASA Analysis from June 26 delivers the answer:
The latest Nel ASA figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Nel ASA investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from June 26.
Nel ASA: Buy or sell? Read more here...
