SAP is spending big on artificial intelligence, buying two companies for more than €1 billion and embedding over 50 AI agents into its business processes. But the market is punishing the software giant anyway. The stock touched a fresh 52-week low of €130.82 earlier this week before recovering slightly to €134.80 — still roughly a third below where it started the year and almost half its July 2025 peak of €266.
The intended acquisitions — structured-data specialist Prior Labs and cloud-integration firm Dremio — are expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. Both deals reflect a conviction at Walldorf that the real money in AI lies not in flashy chatbots but in harnessing structured business data: supply chains, payment flows, financial reports. Internally, SAP has already deployed over 50 AI agents across its operations, claiming efficiency gains of up to 30% and a 55% cut in waste. An AI Agent Hub and governance rules are meant to keep humans in control.
Yet none of that is lifting the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at €134.80, roughly 9% below its 50-day moving average and 27% below the 200-day line. The relative strength index at 37.1 marks oversold territory but has yet to trigger a convincing reversal. The market’s mood is being set elsewhere.
The main culprit: Oracle. The US rival last week unveiled plans to spend as much as $95 billion on AI infrastructure, stoking fears of a margin squeeze across the enterprise software sector. SAP shareholders have been selling first and asking questions later. Add to that a lingering EU antitrust probe into possible anti-competitive practices in maintenance services, and the bear case looks well supplied.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
But there are signs the regulatory cloud may be thinning. Brussels is currently testing concessions offered by SAP, including more flexibility for customers to switch providers and the removal of certain fees. If an agreement is reached, the probe could close without a fine. SAP had earlier faced a potential penalty of up to 10% of annual sales; the company itself now expects no material financial impact.
Analysts, meanwhile, are holding firm with some of the most aggressive targets on the Street. Bank of America Securities calls SAP its top large-cap software pick for 2026 with a €210 price target. Berenberg rates the stock a “Buy” at €215, arguing the market undervalues SAP’s AI-platform transformation. UBS sees €205, citing margin improvement in the second half. And Bernstein goes furthest with a €276 target — more than double the current price.
One bright spot on the operational side: the Bundeswehr has completed its migration to SAP S/4HANA, with roughly 90,000 personnel now using the new system daily.
The next real test comes July 23, when SAP reports second-quarter and first-half results after the end of the quiet period. Investors will be watching the cloud backlog, which stood at €21.9 billion after Q1, up 20% year-on-year. If that growth holds or accelerates, the gap between analyst optimism and market despair may finally start to close.
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