Almonty Industries has spent months trading in the shadow of a drawn-out downtrend, but the past few weeks have rewritten the narrative. The London-listed miner posted a 221% surge in revenue to $25.4 million for the start of the year, swung to a positive operating cash flow of $9.7 million, and placed $800 million in convertible bonds to bankroll its flagship Sangdong project in South Korea. Yet for all the operational momentum, a glance at the shareholder vote from the latest annual meeting reveals a fractured boardroom: CEO Lewis Black secured only 79% approval, while director Daniel D’Amato scraped by with just 63%. General Gustave F. Perna, by contrast, gathered nearly unanimous support.
The $800 million bond placement, which attracted demand well above supply, allows Almonty to expand Sangdong’s ore capacity to 1.2 million tonnes a year. Recent drilling has confirmed the historic grades, and the company now holds roughly $260 million in cash — enough, it says, to steer the commercial ramp-up of its global mine portfolio under new CFO Jorge Beristain. That war chest, combined with the bond proceeds, has given the stock a powerful tailwind: year-to-date it has already gained 124%, and over the past twelve months it is up 460%. Even so, the shares remain almost 19% below their 52-week high of CAD 33.35.
Chart watchers now fix their eyes on a specific trigger. The stock closed Monday at €16.67 and is testing the upper boundary of a downtrend channel, with a daily close above €17.14 considered the primary buy signal. A clean break would open the path to new yearly highs. A double catalyst arrives on June 29, when Almonty joins the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes, forcing passive funds to load up automatically. That mechanical buying pressure could supply exactly the kind of volume needed to smash through resistance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Yet the bull case rests on more than just index entry. Analysts using a discounted cash-flow model peg the fair value of the stock at CAD 57.50, more than double the current price near CAD 27. But critics point to the punishing financials: Almonty reported a loss of roughly CAD 132 million on revenue of just CAD 50 million, and the company is not expected to turn profitable for another three years. The annualised volatility stands at an extreme 97%, making the name prone to sharp corrections. A failure to break the €17.14 level could send the stock back to test the 200-day moving average at CAD 17.70, which sits roughly in line with the €14.00 support zone that buyers have already defended.
For the longer term, the sting lies in the execution risk. Almonty’s ambitious production timeline for Sangdong leaves no room for operational slips — metallurgical hiccups or delays in Phase 1 construction are common in large-scale mining. The next major milestones come later in 2026, with new drill results and progress reports due. Global molybdenum demand will ultimately decide whether the stock can close the gap to its theoretical value. For now, the immediate road map is clear: the €17.14 hurdle, the June 29 index entry, and the question of whether a divided board can deliver a united result.
Ad
Almonty Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Almonty Analysis from June 23 delivers the answer:
The latest Almonty figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Almonty investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from June 23.
Almonty: Buy or sell? Read more here...
