The founders of Partners Group have been snapping up shares at a pace not seen in years — nearly 60 million Swiss francs’ worth since February, including 31 million in June alone. Yet the stock keeps sliding, hitting a fresh 52-week low of 714.80 euros on Monday. The disconnect between insider conviction and market sentiment has rarely been starker.
The reason for the market’s unease is no secret. In the second quarter, investors in the firm’s flagship “Global Value SICAV” fund requested redemptions equal to roughly 9.8% of net asset value — almost double the 5% threshold that automatically triggers a gating mechanism. The 8.6-billion-dollar evergreen vehicle is now capping payouts to stabilise its portfolio, a move that has done little to calm nerves.
The problem is not confined to one fund. A Delaware-registered vehicle has seen outflows of about 6% of NAV, and three other evergreen funds with a combined 9.7 billion dollars are bracing for second-quarter redemptions ranging from 3.5% to 5%. Retail investors — who account for roughly one-fifth of Partners Group’s managed assets — are the primary source of the flight, reacting far more aggressively to market volatility than their institutional counterparts.
“This is contagion from private credit into private equity,” market watchers observe. The gating mechanism, designed as a safety valve, is being read by many as a distress signal.
Analysts have responded in kind. Goldman Sachs slashed its price target from 960 to 860 Swiss francs on Monday while maintaining a “Neutral” rating, citing the high redemption requests and weak relative performance. AlphaValue/Baader Europe now expects zero AuM growth in 2026 and cut its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to 46 francs — a drop of more than 7%. For 2027, the estimate was slashed almost 21% to 49.7 francs, with a target of 1,008 francs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Partners Group?
Bank of America went further, cutting its target from 1,150 to 850 francs. Jefferies halved its enthusiasm, taking its target from 1,130 to 760 francs. Oddo BHF downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold”. Across the 13 analysts covering the company, the average 12-month price target now stands at 966 francs — still well above the current 716.20 euro level, but the market appears sceptical of that upside.
Technically, the damage is deep. The relative strength index sits at 24.1, firmly in oversold territory. The stock trades about 19% below its 50-day moving average, and annualised volatility has climbed to 53%. In the past 30 days alone, the share price has shed roughly 25%, leaving it more than 40% below its 52-week high of 1,213.50 euros. Year-to-date, the loss stands at around 34%.
Through it all, Partners Group’s management has not budged from its guidance: gross new client demand of 26 to 32 billion dollars for the full year 2026, with performance fees landing at the low end of the 25% to 40% of revenue range — a comedown from the record 819 million francs booked in 2025.
The next big test arrives on July 15, when the company publishes its half-year results, disclosing assets under management as of June 30. Investors will be scrutinising whether institutional inflows have been enough to offset the retail exodus, and whether the guidance can survive a third-quarter redemption cycle that is already shaping up to be another tough one. For the moment, the market is voting with its feet — even as the founders vote with their chequebooks.
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