The vicious selloff in Nemetschek shares shows no sign of letting up. The stock struck a fresh 52-week low of €52.80 on Wednesday, extending its 12-month collapse to more than 54%. At the current level of €53.75, the Munich-based construction software group is trading 61% below the August 2025 high of €137.90. Even a strong set of first-quarter numbers and a blockbuster US acquisition in the wings have failed to stem the tide.
The immediate trigger for the latest leg lower has little to do with Nemetschek itself. Oracle rattled the technology sector last week when it reported record revenues but saw its own shares hammered 10% as investors focused on the eye-watering capital expenditure required for its AI infrastructure buildout. Oracle plans net investments of $70 billion by 2027, raising fresh concerns about cash flow across the software industry. That anxiety has rippled across the Atlantic, pulling down European names such as SAP and TeamViewer — and hitting Nemetschek especially hard given its already stretched valuation.
Yet the company’s operating performance tells an entirely different story. In the first quarter of 2026, currency-adjusted revenues rose 17.0% to €313.1 million, driven by a blistering 35.4% increase in subscription and software-as-a-service billings to €248.3 million. Recurring revenue now accounts for more than 92% of the total, underscoring the transition to a more predictable, high-margin business model. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) climbed 29.6% on an adjusted basis to €98.4 million, lifting the margin to 31.4%. Earnings per share improved from €0.39 to €0.52.
Management has reaffirmed full-year guidance for organic currency-adjusted revenue growth of 14% to 15% and an EBITDA margin of 32% to 33%. That forecast, however, is conditional on global economic conditions not deteriorating further — a caveat that has clearly weighed on investor sentiment in a jittery market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nemetschek?
Compounding the paradox is the company’s largest-ever acquisition, the planned takeover of US construction software specialist HCSS for more than €2 billion. The deal values HCSS at roughly 20 times its expected 2025 EBITDA. Nemetschek will hold a 72% stake in the combined entity, while the seller, private equity firm Thoma Bravo, retains the remaining 28%. Closing is expected in the second half of 2026, but the transaction comes with near-term financial obligations: Nemetschek will need to refinance existing HCSS debt, adding around €450 million to net debt.
Analysts are convinced the market has overshot. The consensus price target stands at €94, implying nearly 70% upside from current levels. The trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 26 for 2026 looks undemanding by historical standards, and the relative strength index of 34 points to deeply oversold conditions. Still, the share price continues to hug the lows.
The next potential inflection point comes on 30 July, when Nemetschek publishes its half-year report. If the second-quarter numbers confirm the first-quarter momentum in both SaaS growth and margin expansion — and management delivers progress updates on the HCSS integration — then the tension between robust fundamentals and a historically cheap valuation will become impossible for investors to ignore.
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