The calendar is closing in on Plug Power from two directions. By the end of this week, the hydrogen company must seal a $132.5 million deal to sell its Gateway project to Stream Data Centers — a transaction that could fetch as much as $142 million. If the deadline passes without a signature, both sides can walk away, dealing a heavy blow to an already tight cash position.
The Gateway sale sits at the center of a broader $275 million liquidity program the management has pieced together. A first success came in early June, when Plug Power offloaded tax credits for roughly $39 million in cash. The company has now raised more than $70 million through such transactions without diluting shareholders, a lifeline that has kept the stock from fully cratering. At the end of the first quarter, Plug Power still had $802 million on hand, but with operating losses still running deep, every dollar counts.
Chief executive Jose Luis Crespo has laid out a clear timetable: the company should turn operating EBITDA positive by the fourth quarter of 2026 and reach full profitability by the end of 2028. But that road map now runs headlong into a new political reality. A recently signed law in Washington pulls the plug on clean hydrogen tax credits by the end of 2027 — five years earlier than the Inflation Reduction Act originally envisioned. For a business built on the assumption that government subsidies would bridge the cost gap between green and fossil hydrogen, that change is a fundamental shock.
Plug Power is not waiting for lawmakers to change their minds. Instead, it is actively monetizing existing infrastructure assets and the tax credits attached to them. The mechanism is straightforward: developers sell future tax benefits for cash today. In June, the company unloaded a $44 million credit for $39 million, a discount that proves a functioning market exists for these instruments. Crucially, the new legislation preserves tax credits for hydrogen infrastructure such as storage through 2032, giving the company a longer runway for that portion of its monetization program.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?
The market has so far taken the policy shift in stride, partly because the company already pivoted toward self-help. But the stock is feeling the pressure. Shares closed Friday at €2.47 in Europe, roughly a third below the year’s high set in early June. While the stock is still up about 150% over the past twelve months and 30% year-to-date, the momentum has clearly stalled. Over the past 30 days, the shares have lost 13%. The relative strength index sits at 40, flirting with oversold territory, and the 200-day moving average at €2.22 offers a key floor. On the upside, the 50-day average at €2.82 acts as immediate resistance.
Analysts remain cautious but not bearish. The consensus rating is hold, with an average price target of $3.42. The extraordinary volatility — nearly 90% — reflects the binary nature of the story. A successful Gateway close would ease the most immediate liquidity worry. A failure would likely trigger a sharp selloff.
Even if the deal goes through, the path to profitability is narrow. Tariffs on Chinese components and supply-chain hiccups with European electrolyzers are pushing costs higher, threatening the margin improvements Crespo has promised. The second-quarter results, due in August, will be the first real test of whether operational execution can outrun the twin clocks of a June 30 deadline and a 2027 subsidy cliff. For now, the company is burning through its options — literally selling infrastructure to buy time.
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