More than three million Wegovy pill prescriptions have been written in the United States in just five months — a blistering pace that makes it the most successful GLP-1 launch by volume ever recorded. The oral variant is pulling in patients who had never tried a GLP-1 therapy before: over 80% of new users are first-timers, according to internal data. The surge lifted Novo Nordisk shares 3.21% on Friday to €38.90, pushing the stock back above its 50-day moving average after months of listless trading.
Behind the commercial momentum, a far larger strategic bet is taking shape. The Novo Nordisk Foundation has unveiled CardioMetabolic Bridge, a pan-European research programme that will channel DKK 450 million — roughly €69 million — over six years into obesity, type 2 diabetes and related cardiometabolic conditions. The first laboratory opens in London this month, with additional sites to follow in Italy and Germany. The initiative is not merely academic philanthropy; it aims to accelerate the pipeline of new anti-obesity therapies, ensuring that when the current blockbusters face patent headwinds, replacements will be ready.
The stock’s recent rally has drawn a sharp upgrade from Nordea, which moved its rating from Hold to Buy and set a new price target of DKK 350. The bank expects the Wegovy pill to generate DKK 18 billion in revenue by 2026, a figure well above the previous consensus. Berenberg followed with a target increase to DKK 325. Yet the enthusiasm is not universal. Deutsche Bank remains neutral at DKK 290 and cautions that the 2031 patent cliff on Novo Nordisk’s core GLP-1 assets casts a long shadow.
International expansion is accelerating in parallel. Britain’s health regulator approved the daily Wegovy tablet on 11 June — the first oral GLP-1 for weight loss authorised in the United Kingdom. In the European Union, a committee recommended marketing approval back in May, and Novo Nordisk is preparing to roll out the pill in several non-U.S. markets during the second half of this year. The oral formulation is already reshaping the competitive landscape: with weekly prescriptions in the US now exceeding 200,000, it is eroding the traditional dominance of injectable pens — a trend that threatens suppliers such as Gerresheimer, which had counted on strong pen demand.
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On the pipeline front, all eyes are on CagriSema. The US Food and Drug Administration is expected to rule on the weight-loss candidate toward the end of 2026, following a regulatory submission backed by robust clinical data. Closer to home, the management’s revised full-year forecast calls for a currency-adjusted revenue and profit decline of 4% to 12%, a slight narrowing from the prior 5% to 13% range. Investors will scrutinise the next quarterly report for further clues on how the oral Wegovy is cannibalising — or complementing — the injection business.
Despite the recent gains, the stock still sits roughly 13% lower year-to-date and more than 40% below its 52-week high of €65.20. To break the longer-term downtrend, the shares must reclaim the 200-day moving average, now at €41.16. A powerful catalyst looms: from 1 July 2026, Medicare Part D will begin covering anti-obesity medications for the first time, potentially flooding the market with new demand. Novo Nordisk has also forged a distribution partnership with Telehealth platform Hims & Hers, offering Ozempic and both formulations of Wegovy through a subscription service that starts at $39 for the first month.
Not everyone is sold on the rosy narrative. The 2031 patent expiry remains a structural overhang, and the 23-analyst consensus delivers a 12-month price target of $65.56 — well above current levels — but with a predominance of neutral ratings. For now, the combination of record pill prescriptions, a foundation-funded research offensive and a supportive regulatory calendar gives Novo Nordisk a multi-front story that goes far beyond a single product’s sales chart.
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