HomeAnalysisTest Win, Robot Push, and a Billion-Dollar Bet: XPeng’s Make-or-Break Quarter

Test Win, Robot Push, and a Billion-Dollar Bet: XPeng’s Make-or-Break Quarter

The contrast could hardly be starker. XPeng’s seven-seat X9 SUV just swept two categories at the El Prix Summer 2026—the world’s largest independent EV test—charging from 10% to 80% battery in 12 minutes and 55 seconds and covering 646 kilometres on a single charge, 11.4% above its WLTP rating. Yet the same company that built that vehicle reported a first-quarter net loss of 1.78 billion renminbi and saw its shares trade at €12.58, barely 3.5% above the 52-week low set on 11 June.

The Norwegian Automobile Club (NAF) and magazine Motor put 24 EVs through their paces, and the X9 emerged as the standout. It not only topped the charging speed chart but also recorded the largest positive deviation from its official range of any car in the field. NAF noted that the SUV “clearly stood out.” For XPeng, the accolade arrives at a critical moment: the company plans to launch four new models in Europe in 2026 and aims to double its overseas revenue this year. Norway will be the first market for the X9.

But the numbers from the first three months of 2026 tell a different story. XPeng delivered just 62,682 vehicles in Q1, a 33% plunge year-on-year, while revenue slid 17.6% to 13.03 billion renminbi. The sharp reversal followed the company’s first-ever quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of 2025. The silver lining was gross margin, which climbed to 20.6% from 15.6% a year earlier, helped by cost controls and a richer product mix. Vehicle margin reached 12.1%.

Management is betting heavily on a second-quarter rebound. It has guided for deliveries of between 100,000 and 106,000 units—a sequential jump of up to 69%—and revenue of 19.60 to 20.80 billion renminbi. Reaching even the midpoint of 103,000 vehicles would require a spectacular June. May deliveries of 32,158 were only 4% above April’s, leaving a huge gap to close in the final month of the quarter. The international business, which already accounts for 20% of revenue, will be crucial: overseas deliveries surpassed 6,000 units per month for the first time in April, and the target is more than 10,000 monthly by the fourth quarter. XPeng’s cash position stood at 42.09 billion renminbi at the end of March, providing enough runway for the push.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?

Founder and CEO He Xiaopeng is leaving nothing to chance. On 10 June he took personal charge of XPeng’s robotics division, citing the imminent mass production of the humanoid robot IRON. The move came after Shi Xiaoxin, a senior director on the IRON project, resigned. A new 110,000-square-metre factory is under construction in Guangzhou, and XPeng plans to start churning out over 1,000 IRON units per month from the fourth quarter of 2026. Pilot deployments in retail stores are scheduled for early 2027, with commercial deliveries—first in China, then abroad—expected later that year. Household applications are not planned until 2028.

Investors remain wary. The stock has lost roughly 28% since the start of 2026 and sits nearly 49% below its November high of €24.40. The relative strength index is at 34.5, deep in oversold territory. Bank of America reiterated a buy recommendation in May and raised its price target, pointing to XPeng’s rapidly expanding international business. But analysts note that a miss on the second-quarter delivery target could shatter the fragile confidence that remains.

The X9’s test results provide a powerful marketing tool in Europe, where XPeng already delivered 22,787 vehicles in 2025—up 126% year-on-year—and relies on Magna Steyr’s plant in Graz, Austria, as well as new assembly lines in Malaysia and Indonesia. But strong product reviews alone cannot reverse the stock’s slide. The next few weeks will show whether the numbers from Norway can translate into the kind of delivery surge the company needs to justify its ambitious roadmap.

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