The transition of SpaceX from a closely held private venture to the most valuable listed company in history has fundamentally recalibrated the way investors assess Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. The discount on the trust’s net asset value – a persistent headache for management that at times exceeded 12% – has shrunk to just 2.27%, far below the 12-month average of 6.94%. That narrowing reflects the removal of a key uncertainty: the market’s inability to independently price the trust’s largest holding.
SpaceX debuted on June 12, 2026 at an issue price of $135, closing its first day at $160.95 – a gain of roughly 19% that valued the rocket maker at $2.1 trillion. The IPO generated staggering demand: total orders exceeded $250 billion, dwarfing the allocated supply, with retail investors alone placing bids worth more than $70 billion. For Scottish Mortgage, which invested $200 million in SpaceX between 2018 and 2021, that stake is now worth approximately $5 billion – a 25-fold return that accounts for over 20% of the trust’s entire portfolio.
The financial picture at SpaceX remains a study in contrasts. Revenue reached $18.67 billion in 2025, but the company swung to a net loss of $4.94 billion after being profitable the prior year. The first quarter of 2026 added another $4.28 billion in red ink. Starlink, the connectivity division, contributed $11.4 billion – 61% of group revenue. Elon Musk has set a revenue target of $1 trillion by 2030, a projection the market appears to take seriously despite the current losses.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?
Scottish Mortgage’s shares rose 4.00% on Monday to €16.77, extending year-to-date gains to roughly 21%. The trust is still about 15% below its 52-week high of €19.50 reached in late May, and its relative strength index sits at a neutral 44. The IPO has not been an unqualified boon for the broader space sector: competitors such as Rocket Lab and Planet Labs shed double-digit percentages in the immediate aftermath, as capital rotated toward the market’s new giant.
Options trading on SpaceX shares is set to begin on Tuesday, June 16, which should deepen liquidity and provide additional price discovery. The Nasdaq-100 is considering an accelerated inclusion after just 15 trading days, though a spot in the S&P 500 remains unlikely given the index’s strict profitability criteria – a bar SpaceX currently does not clear. Any index addition would force passive funds to accumulate the stock, providing a structural underpinning for Scottish Mortgage’s largest holding and potentially further compressing the trust’s discount.
The real test for the trust now lies in how SpaceX performs as a public company. The initial weeks will show whether the post-IPO enthusiasm can be sustained and whether the trust’s remaining private portfolio – still valued with a degree of uncertainty – can escape the scepticism that has long weighed on its net asset value. For long-suffering shareholders, the discount’s dramatic collapse is a vindication of the private-market bet that defined the trust’s strategy for the past decade.
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