Nvidia is showering shareholders with cash at a historic pace, but the market’s attention has drifted to the stars. While the chipmaker prepares to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share on June 26 — 25 times the previous payout — institutional investors are busy selling large blocks of US tech stocks to free up liquidity for SpaceX’s upcoming initial public offering, which targets a staggering $1.77 trillion valuation. The result is a tug-of-war between record-breaking fundamentals and a powerful rotation that has pulled Nvidia’s stock back to a critical technical level.
For the first time, Nvidia is acting like a mature capital-return machine. CFO Colette Kress has committed to returning at least half of free cash flow to shareholders. In fiscal 2026 the company generated $96.7 billion in free cash flow, and the first quarter of the current fiscal year alone added $48.6 billion — nearly double the year-ago figure. The dividend yield remains modest at around 0.5%, but the real firepower comes from the buyback program. In May the board added $80 billion to the existing repurchase authorization, bringing the total available to roughly $118.5 billion with no expiration date. During the first fiscal quarter of 2027, Nvidia returned approximately $20 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends combined.
Yet the market’s focus has shifted 180 degrees. Hedge funds are rotating capital ahead of the SpaceX IPO, which would instantly become the seventh-largest listed US company. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF has lost about 2.4% since the start of June, dragging Nvidia along for the ride — even though the rocket builder itself reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025. The dislocation has left Nvidia’s shares testing the 50-day moving average, which closed Friday at €177.28. That level has historically served as a turning point for the stock. On a weekly basis the shares are down a little over 2%.
The company’s operating reality remains far brighter. First-quarter revenue hit a record $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with the data center business surging 92% to $75.2 billion. For the current quarter, management expects around $91 billion in revenue — a figure that excludes China data center sales. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $215.9 billion, with a gross margin of 71.1% and diluted earnings per share of $4.90. Analysts are sticking with their bullish calls. DA Davidson reiterated its buy rating with a $300 price target and added Nvidia to its “Best of Breed” list, noting that the stock meets 10 of the bank’s 12 strict quality criteria. Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, whose portfolio already holds a multi-billion dollar position, argues the stock remains undervalued despite a market cap approaching $5 trillion, dismissing concerns that growth is flattening.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The sector backdrop reinforces the thesis. At a Bank of America technology conference, 37 semiconductor executives confirmed that supply is expanding rapidly but still cannot keep pace with insatiable demand. Hyperscalers are expected to invest $1 trillion in AI infrastructure over the coming year.
All eyes now turn to the annual general meeting on June 24, held virtually. Shareholders will vote on the election of ten directors, an advisory resolution on management compensation, and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers as auditor for fiscal 2027. The board recommends rejecting four shareholder proposals, including one that would require detailed reporting on greenhouse gas emissions from sold products. Preliminary voting results will be released the same day.
The stock currently trades at around €181, roughly 11% below its 52-week high of €202.50, and in the vicinity of a price level that interests both growth investors and a growing cohort of income-oriented funds. If the 50-day line holds, the path back to the all-time high remains open — provided the gravitational pull of a $1.77 trillion rocket doesn’t yank too much liquidity away first.
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