A quiet revolution is underway in the tungsten market, and Almonty Industries sits squarely at its center. The company’s Sangdong mine in South Korea has started commercial production, a convertible note worth nearly $800 million has been placed, and the stock is about to join the Russell 1000 index — all within a span of weeks. Behind the scenes, institutional investors have been scrambling to build positions.
Massive Convertible Note Draws Oversubscribed Demand
Almonty raised $700 million in 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2031, with an additional $100 million greenshoe fully exercised by the underwriting syndicate. The net proceeds amount to approximately $772.7 million. Part of the funds will be used for capped-call transactions designed to limit dilution, while the remainder will refinance existing debt and bolster working capital. The deal underscores the market’s appetite for exposure to a critical mineral supply chain that is rapidly decoupling from China.
Sangdong Ramp-Up Delivers on Operational Promise
The mine’s first phase began processing ore in March 2026, with annual capacity of roughly 640,000 tonnes and an output of 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, slated for 2027, will double that capacity. The timing is no coincidence: the Pentagon has mandated that all tungsten used by its defense contractors must come from non-Chinese sources starting January 2027. Sangdong is one of the few Western-aligned mines capable of meeting that demand.
The financial impact is already visible. First-quarter revenue surged 221% to $25.4 million, driven by higher spot tungsten prices and solid production at the company’s Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Operating cash flow swung from negative $4.4 million a year ago to positive $9.7 million. Net loss narrowed to $5.3 million from $34.6 million in the prior-year period. The adjusted loss per share of $0.027 fell slightly short of estimates, but analysts still project a modest full-year profit.
Institutions Make Multi-Million-Dollar Bets
Regulatory filings reveal a wave of accumulation by heavyweight asset managers. Next Century Growth Investors built a new position worth about $16 million in the fourth quarter. Van Eck Associates increased its stake by over 13,000%, now holding nearly $100 million in Almonty shares. Marshall Wace boosted its position by 7,500%, bringing its total to roughly $11 million.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Analyst targets imply substantial upside from current levels. Oppenheimer has a Buy rating and a $25 price target, as does DA Davidson. B. Riley Financial sits at $23. All three forecasts are well above Friday’s close of C$24.75, though the stock remains about 26% below its April high of C$33.35. On a year-to-date basis, the shares have still gained more than 400%.
Russell Inclusion Set to Drive Passive Demand
Starting June 29, Almonty will be added to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. Exchange-traded funds and index funds that track these benchmarks will be forced buyers, with market observers estimating inflows in the tens of millions of dollars. The index event comes just as the company has strengthened its governance and management.
At the annual meeting on June 9, shareholders approved all seven board nominees with over 99% support — including CEO Lewis Black and two retired U.S. generals with defense and policy backgrounds. The same meeting confirmed Jorge Beristain as the new chief financial officer, effective June 1. Beristain previously served as vice president of finance at Ryerson Holding Corp and led metals and mining equity research for the Americas at Deutsche Bank Securities.
Technically Poised for a Decision
The stock briefly dipped below its 50-day moving average of C$26.91 on Friday before rebounding sharply to close with a 4% gain. The 100-day line at C$24.11 is now a key support level. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 47.4, suggesting the shares are neither overbought nor oversold. A clean break above the resistance level would confirm that the consolidation phase is over; failure to hold the 100-day line could invite further profit-taking.
European ammonium paratungstate prices have climbed from roughly $1,650–$1,900 per metric ton unit in mid-February to over $3,100, following China’s export controls that took effect in early 2025. Tungsten prices have more than quintupled since those restrictions were imposed. With Sangdong ramping up and institutional demand accelerating, Almonty has positioned itself as the principal Western beneficiary of a supply chain in full reconfiguration.
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