An oil-price shock unleashed by a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive up feedstock costs for BASF by as much as 40%, chief executive Markus Kamieth warned Frankfurt-based journalists on June 9. The Iran conflict, now in its fourth month, has already pushed Brent crude near $100 a barrel, squeezing margins at a time when the chemical industry is mired in its worst downturn in a quarter-century. “The idea that turning Nordstream back on would lower European gas prices is nonsense,” Kamieth told the International Club of Frankfurt Economic Journalists, pointing out that liquefied natural gas remains the price-setting mechanism on the continent.
Yet even as the CEO painted a bleak near-term picture, BASF is laying groundwork for the long haul. At the Battery Show Europe in Stuttgart last week, the Ludwigshafen-based group unveiled Oppanol® N PLUS, a polyisobutene-based binder designed for solid-state batteries. The material’s high elasticity compensates for mechanical stress during charge and discharge cycles, extending cell life and curbing side reactions — a critical advantage as the auto industry pushes toward next-generation energy storage. Mass production of solid-state batteries is not expected before the end of the decade, but the product launch signals BASF’s intent to secure a foothold in what could become a transformative growth market.
The share price reflected the conflicting forces at play. BASF stock closed at €49.35 on Friday, roughly 5% below its 50-day moving average of €52.14 and about 10% off its 52-week high. The shares have shed nearly 9% over the past 30 days but still show a year-to-date gain of roughly 10%. First-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for special items, came in at €2.4 billion — down about 6% year-on-year — on sales of €16 billion, a decline of roughly 3%. Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA of between €6.2 billion and €7 billion.
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To fortify margins, BASF is simultaneously pruning its portfolio. The company will shut down its expandable polystyrene plant in Ulsan, South Korea, by mid-June 2026, eliminating 85,000 tonnes of annual capacity. It has also agreed to sell its silicate business, including assets at the Düsseldorf-Holthausen site, to PQ. The deal, financial terms of which were not disclosed, is expected to close in the second half of 2026 pending regulatory approvals. A newly established “Core Transformation Office” led by Julia Raquet will oversee the reshaping of BASF’s core divisions under the “Winning Ways” strategy.
The biggest bet, however, is in China. BASF’s new integrated Verbund site in Zhanjiang has commenced operations. For 2026, the company still anticipates a slightly negative EBITDA contribution due to ramp-up costs. The inflection point is expected in 2027, when full capacity utilization is reached. By 2030, Zhanjiang is projected to generate €4 billion to €5 billion in sales and €1 billion to €1.2 billion in EBITDA. Kamieth expressed confidence that Europe will retain a strong chemicals industry a decade from now — “but a different one.”
In the meantime, BASF is leaning on its share buyback program as a support mechanism. Repurchases of up to €1.5 billion are authorized through the end of June 2026, part of a broader plan to buy back at least €4 billion in shares by 2028. Whether that buffer can hold against a prolonged Hormus crisis remains the dominant question for investors.
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