SpaceX executed the largest initial public offering in history on June 12, yet the celebration for its biggest institutional backer quickly soured. Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust saw its own stock tumble 5.29% on Friday to 16.12 euros, even as its long-held bet on Elon Musk’s space venture soared 19% on debut to a market capitalisation of more than $2tn.
The disconnect stems from a powerful macro headwind. A strong US jobs report reignited fears that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate hike in December 2026 — a move now fully priced into markets. That triggered a sharp rotation out of richly valued technology stocks, and Scottish Mortgage, with its concentrated exposure to high-growth names, bore the brunt. The shares now trade 17% below their mid-May peak, with a relative strength index of 37.5, hovering close to oversold territory.
From Illiquid Bet to Liquid Colossus
The SpaceX listing reshapes the fund’s structure in an instant. What was once an illiquid private investment has become a tradeable public position that accounts for roughly one-fifth of the entire portfolio. The original £151mn stake has ballooned to around $4bn, based on the IPO price of $135 per share — though shares opened at $150. The management had deliberately marked the holding conservatively, applying a $1.25tn valuation to SpaceX, while analysts had pencilled in as much as $2tn. Post-IPO, private assets now represent about 40% of Scottish Mortgage’s total portfolio.
SpaceX’s lofty valuation rests heavily on its Starlink satellite-internet business, which generated $11.2bn in revenue in 2025 — roughly 60% of the group’s total. The flipside is a punishing cost base: the company has posted cumulative losses of $13bn since 2023, including $4.3bn in the first months of this year. Investors have so far looked past the red ink, betting on Starlink’s dominant market position.
Anthropic Lines Up for Its Turn
With SpaceX now in the public market, attention is turning to the next powerhouse in Scottish Mortgage’s portfolio. AI firm Anthropic filed for its own IPO in May, reporting a staggering leap in revenue to $47bn within a single year. Its last private funding round valued the company at $965bn. A successful listing would further validate the fund’s private-market strategy and could provide another major catalyst.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?
Institutional investors are already positioning for that outcome. Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management bought more than 33 million Scottish Mortgage shares in June, pushing its holding past the 3% reporting threshold.
Dividend Dilemma and a Pivotal AGM
On 2 July, shareholders in Edinburgh will vote on a proposed full-year dividend of 4.57 pence per share — which would mark the 43rd consecutive annual increase. Yet the payout is anything but secure. The planned distribution nearly doubles the trust’s net profit of £26mn, leaving coverage extremely thin. Also up for approval is a revamped share buyback programme that would limit repurchases to instances when the stock trades below net asset value.
A further near-term catalyst could come from an expected inclusion of SpaceX in the Nasdaq 100, a move that would force index-tracking funds to buy the stock and in turn bolster Scottish Mortgage’s net asset value.
For now, the trust’s fate is caught between macro anxiety, internal governance decisions — and the daily price signals now emanating from its largest holding. The next few weeks will provide clarity on both fronts.
Ad
Scottish Mortgage Investment Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Scottish Mortgage Investment Analysis from June 14 delivers the answer:
The latest Scottish Mortgage Investment figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Scottish Mortgage Investment investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from June 14.
Scottish Mortgage Investment: Buy or sell? Read more here...
