The automotive world celebrated BMW’s historic Le Mans pole position last weekend, but back on the trading floor the mood is glum. The Munich-based carmaker’s stock closed at €67.40 on Friday, barely above a 52-week low of €65.52 set just a day earlier, dragged down by a punishing tariff regime that is costing the company €10 million every single day. The year-to-date loss now stands at nearly 30%.
Those tariff costs have a structural root: BMW fails to meet the 75% North American value-added threshold required under USMCA rules, pushing its duty rate from 2.5% to 25%. The hit is already visible in the numbers. In the first quarter of 2026, auto segment margins came in at 5.0%, with tariffs eating 1.25 percentage points of that — even after countermeasures. For the full year, the company expects a similar drag of around 1.25 points on its EBIT margin.
Wall Street is divided on what happens next. JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi reiterated an Overweight rating and €100 target on June 8, arguing the stock is oversold and expecting a second-quarter auto margin of 5% — slightly below the consensus 5.5% but still implying a floor. Citigroup took a more cautious stance on Friday, cutting its price target from €86 to €73 while keeping a neutral rating. That target now sits just €5.60 above the current share price, leaving limited upside in the near term.
The divergence between bullish analysts and the market’s pessimism is stark. The relative strength index has fallen to 25.1 — deep into oversold territory — and the stock trades more than 20% below its 200-day moving average of €84.37. A technical bounce is statistically plausible at these levels, but the fundamental headwinds are formidable.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
China, long the industry’s growth engine, has become a serious drag. BMW’s deliveries there dropped 10% in the first quarter, and the broader Chinese auto market shrank even more. Group revenue fell to around €31 billion. Management maintains its full-year guidance: an operating margin between 4% and 6%, sales roughly flat year-on-year, and a moderate decline in pretax profit. But that forecast remains at risk if tariffs escalate or Chinese demand weakens further.
Against this gloomy backdrop, the Le Mans triumph offers a moment of cheer — if little else for shareholders. Dries Vanthoor claimed the first pole position in BMW M Motorsport history at the legendary race, clocking 3:22.564 minutes in the #15 M Hybrid V8. Robin Frijns added a fourth-place start in the sister car. The victory followed a win at the WEC round in Spa-Francorchamps. Yet the stock market has taken no notice; racing glory does nothing to offset a €10 million daily tariff burden.
The next real test comes with June sales figures, due before the quarterly report at the end of July. Asumendi sees the numbers as pivotal for second-quarter margin development. If they disappoint, the gap between analyst optimism and the stock’s sinking trajectory will become even harder to bridge.
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