The stock of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen surged nearly 15% in the past week, closing at €1.58 on Friday. Yet behind that bounce lies a stark warning: management expects a net loss in the low double-digit millions for the 2026/2027 fiscal year. The market’s enthusiasm for the company’s radical transformation is colliding with a cash-burning present.
The annual numbers for 2025/2026 offered a mixed picture. Revenue held steady at €2,293 million, while net profit more than tripled to €15 million, lifting earnings per share from €0.02 to €0.05. Adjusted EBITDA margin, however, slipped to 6.6% from 7.1% a year ago, squeezed by upfront investments in new business fields and geopolitical headwinds. Order intake also softened, falling to €2,246 million from €2,433 million.
The real sting lies in the outlook. For the current year, Heidelberg forecasts stable revenue but a net loss. Management has ruled out a dividend and plans to cap the damage through a strict cost and efficiency program. The goal is a “noticeable” improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin, though the near-term hit to profitability is unavoidable.
Heidelberg is shrinking its legacy printing business aggressively. More than 550 severance agreements have been signed, and production of the Speedmaster CX 104 has moved entirely to China. A new plant in North Macedonia is set to begin construction in 2026. The Print & Packaging Equipment division is expected to see lower revenue but higher margins, while the Digital Solutions & Lifecycle unit is projected to post modest growth.
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At the same time, the company is pushing into fresh territory under the HD Advanced Technologies GmbH umbrella, described as a “dual-use” approach straddling civilian and defense applications. A concrete example is the ONBERG joint venture with U.S.-Israeli firm Ondas, focused on autonomous drone-defense systems. At the ILA Berlin Air Show, ONBERG signed a memorandum of understanding with a Ukrainian company — a move that has electrified some investors.
Technically, the stock has regained some ground. It now trades above both its 50-day moving average of €1.47 and its 100-day average of €1.50. The relative strength index at 63.1 suggests solid momentum without overheating. But the year-to-date picture remains painful: the shares are still down 22.17% since January, and the 52-week high of €2.54 is nearly 38% away. Annualized volatility above 42% underscores the risk.
Two dates could sharpen the picture. The annual general meeting is set for July 23, and the first-quarter results for 2026/2027 will be released on August 19 — the earliest test of whether the promised margin turnaround is real or just rhetoric. For now, Heidelberg’s investors are betting that a deeper transformation will eventually outweigh the earnings pain.
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