The Norwegian electrolyser manufacturer Nel ASA finds itself caught between two very different pictures of the hydrogen economy. On one hand, Swiss energy group Agrola plans to shut down all its hydrogen filling stations by the end of 2026, citing weak demand from passenger cars and high energy costs. On the other, a new consortium called Hydrogen of Dutch Origin is forging ahead with plans to build a 50-megawatt offshore electrolysis plant in the North Sea, converting wind power directly into green hydrogen. For Nel, which supplies equipment for both industrial and refuelling applications, these conflicting signals have left the stock under severe pressure.
The broader sector has been hit hard. ITM Power tumbled more than 11% on 9 June alone and has lost about 30% over a ten-day stretch. FuelCell Energy posted an adjusted loss of 58 cents per share for its second fiscal quarter, a far wider deficit than analysts had anticipated. Ballard Power Systems is trading well below its 52-week high of $6.57. The entire hydrogen complex is nursing a deep pullback, and Nel has not been spared. Over the past seven days, its shares have shed roughly 17% of their value.
Macroeconomic headwinds are compounding the pain. US annual inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, the highest reading in more than three years, triggering a broad sell-off on Wall Street. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% and the Nasdaq lost 2%. For capital-intensive growth names like Nel, which rely on long-term project financing, a persistently elevated interest rate environment acts as an additional drag on valuations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Nel’s stock changed hands at €0.24 at the time of writing, a level that represents a 35% decline from the May high of €0.37 and sits roughly 9% below its 50-day moving average. The relative strength index stands at 37.4, brushing the edge of oversold territory but without offering a clear reversal signal. On the technical side, the €0.21 mark is the critical line in the sand: if the price breaks below that level, the 200-day moving average would be breached, potentially triggering further automated selling.
Despite the near-term gloom, the long-term narrative remains intact. The global hydrogen infrastructure market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of around 8.5% through 2035, with the number of hydrogen refuelling stations worldwide projected to climb from roughly 1,000 in 2025 to more than 10,000 by the end of the decade. Nel is widely regarded as a key supplier for both industrial electrolyser projects and the growing fuelling network. The company currently commands a market capitalisation of approximately €477 million.
Investors will get the first concrete test of whether operational momentum can offset the sector’s headwinds when Nel reports its next quarterly results on 15 July 2026. The big question now is whether the industrial order book can compensate for the deterioration in the mobility segment — a dynamic that will determine whether the stock can hold its year-to-date gain of roughly 28% and navigate the volatility, which currently stands at an eye-watering 97%.
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