The Bremen-based space group OHB is presenting investors with a tale of two stories. On one side, record orders, a critical ESA asteroid-defence contract, and the imminent first flight of its rocket unit point to an operational powerhouse. On the other, a €1.2 billion capital-authorisation and a stalled share sale by private-equity heavyweight KKR are fuelling concerns over equity dilution and market overhang.
Shares in OHB have been on a wild ride, recovering 4.21% to €383.50 in the latest session after two sharp down days. That still leaves the stock up roughly 216% since the start of the year, though it remains nearly 50% below the May peak of €688. The 50-day moving average, currently at €364.49, is being watched as a key technical support — holding that level would preserve the longer-term uptrend.
Record Backlog and a Hyperspectral Eye on Apophis
Operationally, the company is firing on all cylinders. The order backlog hit a record €3.35 billion at the end of March, driven largely by the Space Systems segment. First-quarter total output rose 15%, adjusted EBITDA climbed to €27.3 million, and net profit nearly tripled to approximately €10 million.
On the sidelines of the ILA Berlin air show, OHB’s Italian subsidiary signed a contract to build HAMLET, a hyperspectral camera that will be the core instrument of the ESA-JAXA RAMSES mission. The camera is designed to analyse the surface of the asteroid Apophis in the infrared spectrum when it makes its extremely close pass by Earth in April 2029. CEO Marco Fuchs called the deal “concrete proof of the capabilities of European spaceflight” and a direct contribution to planetary defence.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?
The €1.2 Billion Capital Overhang
Despite the operational momentum, shareholders are bracing for a potential dilution shock. The annual general meeting on 8 June 2026 authorised management to issue convertible bonds and participation rights worth up to €1.2 billion through 2031. The authorisation includes a conditional capital increase of 20%. Fuchs has confirmed the plans, saying the company needs the flexibility to capitalise on the sector’s rapid growth and is weighing both debt and fresh equity.
Adding to the pressure, KKR is seeking to offload roughly 20% of its OHB stake. An earlier attempt to place the shares on the market was aborted after SpaceX announced its own initial public offering, sucking up banking capacity and investor demand. Seven banks are now preparing a second placement; if it succeeds, the company’s minuscule free float of just 6% would expand significantly, potentially adding volatility.
A Make-or-Break Rocket Launch in July
The next major catalyst for the stock is the maiden flight of RFA ONE, the launch vehicle developed by OHB subsidiary Rocket Factory Augsburg. The launch window opens on 1 July. A successful flight would transform OHB’s positioning in the satellite-launch market. Management, however, is tempering expectations: historically, more than 70% of such first flights end in failure.
Until that rocket lifts off — and until the KKR placement finds a price — the short-term direction of OHB’s shares hinges on the interplay between a booming order book and the twin overhangs of dilution and a large overhang block.
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