Oracle enters Wednesday’s fiscal fourth-quarter report under a cloud of conflicting signals. The stock has tumbled 13% in the span of seven trading sessions, closing Friday at €185.46, even as analysts scramble to lift their price targets and the company’s cloud backlog swells to a staggering $553 billion. The driver of the sell-off is anything but company-specific: a red-hot US jobs report for May delivered 172,000 new positions against an expected 85,000, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.3% and fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates again before year-end. Markets now price in a greater than 60% probability of such a move, a prospect that slammed growth stocks across the board. The Nasdaq suffered its sharpest single-day decline since early 2025 on June 5, falling 4.18%, and Oracle — as a highly leveraged AI infrastructure bet — took an outsized hit.
That leverage is the other side of the coin. Oracle’s long-term debt has ballooned to $124 billion from $85 billion a year ago, as the company pours between $45 billion and $50 billion annually into expanding Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). Management’s stated target is to hit $90 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2027, backed by ambitions to capture surging demand for GPU-as-a-Service. GPU workloads already account for 23% of the company’s infrastructure growth, with partners like OpenAI and Meta signing multiyear contracts that underpin the record backlog. The sheer scale of that commitment, however, makes the stock acutely sensitive to any sign that the payoff is delayed or the cost of capital rises further.
The quarterly numbers themselves, due after the close on Wednesday, June 10, are expected to show revenue of roughly $19.1 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share of $1.96, up 15%. But the real focus is OCI. Several analysts project cloud revenue growth between 46% and 50%, and the consensus will hinge on whether Oracle can demonstrate it is finally converting its order book into actual billings after a period of capacity constraints.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Oracle?
That’s exactly the argument Jefferies analyst Brent Thill made last week when he reaffirmed a buy rating and a $320 price target. Thill said OCI’s capacity bottlenecks are easing, allowing the company to fully capture the rising wave of AI demand. He is not alone. TD Cowen raised its target from $250 to $300, while Evercore ISI moved to $245, citing the $553 billion backlog and long-term deals with OpenAI and Meta. On the more bullish end, Cantor Fitzgerald holds a $284 target, and BTIG is far out in front at $400, also pointing to the same backlog.
Institutional activity reflects a similar split of conviction and caution. Cantillon Capital Management increased its stake to roughly 861,000 shares during the most recent quarter, while Contrarius Group Holdings entered Oracle as a new position in the fourth quarter of 2025, buying more than 930,000 shares for about $181 million.
Technically, the stock sits about 20% above its 50-day moving average of €154.23, with a relative strength index of 56.6 — not oversold, but far from overbought. The key support zone, according to chartists, lies between €200 and €210 on the downside (a level already breached in the current pullback), while a double-bottom pattern near €137 with a neckline at €171 offers a deeper floor. If Wednesday’s report delivers a convincing beat, a rally toward €245 to €260 is possible. If it disappoints, the downside risk is amplified by the stock’s 34% decline from its September 2025 peak of €280.70 — a reminder that despite an 11% gain year-to-date, Oracle has already lost much of its upward momentum. The margin for error is razor-thin, and the verdict on whether $50 billion in annual AI spending makes sense may come down to the next 48 hours.
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