Valneva’s share price closed at €2.33 on Friday, just nine percent above its 52-week low of €2.13 and more than half below the August high. The stock has now surrendered roughly 40 percent of its value since the start of the year, with both the 50-day moving average (€2.55) and the 200-day average (€3.74) sitting well above the current level. The relative strength index of 38.3 signals persistent selling pressure without crossing into classic oversold territory.
The numbers out of the first quarter explain the market’s mood. Net losses ballooned to €32.1 million from €9.2 million a year earlier, while total revenue slumped to €30.9 million from €49.2 million. The travel vaccine business bore the brunt: IXIARO/JESPECT generated €20.2 million, DUKORAL €8.6 million, and the newly launched IXCHIQ contributed just €1.6 million. Management blamed geopolitical headwinds damping demand in key markets, planned declines in third-party sales, and delayed deliveries to the U.S. Department of Defense.
In response, Valneva slashed its full‑year guidance for product sales to between €135 million and €150 million, down from the previous range of €145 million to €160 million. The total revenue forecast remains at €145 million to €160 million, supported by unchanged other revenue. To shore up cash, the French biotech is cutting 10 to 15 percent of its global workforce, aiming to reduce operating costs by 25 to 35 percent this year compared with 2025. At the end of March, the company still had €105 million in liquid assets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Valneva?
All eyes are now on the Lyme vaccine candidate LB6V, developed with Pfizer. Phase 3 data released in March showed efficacy above 70 percent in individuals aged five and older, with a clean safety profile. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has granted fast‑track status. The partners intend to submit regulatory applications this autumn, targeting a potential market entry in 2027. LB6V is the only late‑stage Lyme program worldwide, making it Valneva’s most valuable asset — and its most fragile.
Investor conferences this month offer management a platform to rebuild confidence. Valneva is scheduled to present at the Oddo BHF Nextcap Forum on June 12 and the BNP Paribas SMID Cap Conference on June 24, both in Paris. The annual shareholder meeting in Lyon at the end of June will also demand clarity on financing and pipeline progress. Any delay in the Lyme filing would amplify pressure on the stock.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Of the twelve covering the stock, the average price target stands at €6.16 — nearly three times the current share price. Six analysts tracked by the primary source give a mean target of €5.23. Both figures reflect a valuation that rests almost entirely on LB6V’s success. For now, Valneva’s turnaround story is a bet on a single vaccine, with the share price pricing in little room for error.
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