SAP’s shares enter the trading week perched just below a closely watched chart level, yet the software giant’s near-term fortunes hinge on far more than moving averages. The stock closed Friday at 160.86 euros, a wafer-thin 51 cents beneath the 100-day moving average of 161.37 euros. That technical resistance arrives as the company navigates a European antitrust probe, a multi-billion-euro share buyback, and a crucial second-quarter earnings report on 23 July.
The recovery from the 52-week low of 135.52 euros, struck in mid-May, has been respectable — a 19% bounce that leaves the stock 8.91% higher over the past 30 days. But the broader picture remains tarnished. The year-to-date deficit stands at 20.37%, and the 12-month decline exceeds 40%. The all-time high of 271.60 euros, reached back in June 2025, is now more than 40% out of reach.
Antitrust Clouds Could Lift
The European Commission’s investigation into whether SAP stifled competition in maintenance and support services for on‑premise ERP software carries a theoretical fine of up to 10% of annual revenue. Recent signals, however, point toward a resolution without a penalty. Brussels has opened a market test on commitments the company offered — including granting customers more freedom to choose third‑party providers and scrapping certain license fees. If no serious objections emerge from customers and competitors, the case could be closed without financial damage. SAP itself has said it expects no material impact on its financial results from the package.
A Buyback Underpins the Floor
While the antitrust overhang potentially eases, a share repurchase programme is providing a structural bid. In January 2026, SAP unveiled a fresh buyback of up to 10 billion euros, to run until the end of 2027. The current tranche, launched on 5 February 2026, authorises the acquisition of shares worth as much as 2.6 billion euros via the open market. That mandate runs until 27 July 2026 — meaning the buying pressure will persist through the summer.
Chartist Checkpoints and Volatility
Beyond the 100-day line, the technical landscape offers clear markers. The 50-day moving average sits at 148.99 euros, roughly 8% below the current price, providing the first potential cushion if the 161.37 level holds as resistance. The 200-day average at 189.61 euros remains a distant target and confirms that the primary downtrend is still intact.
The 14-day relative strength index stands at 57.4 — a neutral-to-slightly-positive reading that leaves room for further upside without suggesting the stock is overbought. Less reassuring is the annualised 30-day volatility of 41.18%, underscoring the lingering jitters in the tech sector.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Cloud Growth Faces a Reality Check
Operationally, the next big catalyst arrives with the second‑quarter numbers on 23 July (the conference call begins at 23:00). The bar was set high in the first quarter: the cloud backlog swelled 20% to 21.9 billion euros, and cloud revenue climbed 19% to around 6.0 billion euros. IFRS operating profit rose 17% to 2.7 billion euros, while the non-IFRS figure advanced 24% to 2.9 billion euros.
The catch is that management has already warned that several one‑off items flattered the opening quarter’s cloud performance. For Q2, a deceleration in cloud revenue growth is expected — exactly the metric the market will scrutinise. Full‑year targets remain ambitious: cloud revenue between 25.8 and 26.2 billion euros, combined cloud and software sales of 36.3 to 36.8 billion euros, non-IFRS operating profit of 11.9 to 12.3 billion euros, and free cash flow of roughly 10 billion euros.
AI Storyline Gets a Mid‑Week Spotlight
The longer‑term investment case rests on SAP’s “Autonomous Enterprise” vision and its AI platform. Two events this week will give traders a fresh glimpse of that narrative. On Wednesday, 11 June, SAP hosts a webinar on AI‑powered property management — a non‑price‑sensitive event, but another brick in the enterprise‑AI wall. The day before, Chief Technology Officer Philipp Herzig takes part in a fireside chat where he is likely to field questions on the company’s AI strategy and the quality of customer data.
On the M&A front, the acquisition of data‑management specialist Reltio has closed, aimed at helping customers prepare data from SAP and non‑SAP systems for AI workloads. The takeover of Dremio is still pending regulatory clearance and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026.
For now, all eyes are on 161.37 euros. A decisive break above that level could clear a path toward 165 euros. Failure to hold would refocus attention on the 50-day average at 148.99. But with antitrust tailwinds, a buyback, and the Q2 scorecard all converging over the next six weeks, the stock’s fate depends on more than just a single moving average.
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