The week started with a coronation and ended with a rout. ASML briefly became the most valuable listed company in European history on June 4, touching a 52-week high of €1,529.80. By Friday, a broad selloff in semiconductor stocks had knocked the Dutch chip-equipment maker back to €1,429.40 — a 5.75% single-day decline that erased 6.5% from that peak. Yet amid the turbulence, a chorus of top-tier banks rushed to lift their price targets, and a new catalyst emerged from an unlikely source: Elon Musk.
Before the selloff hit, BofA Securities, Barclays, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley all raised their targets for ASML. BofA went to €1,921 from €1,710 with a “Buy” rating, while Barclays and JPMorgan each set new targets at €1,900 (up from €1,575 and €1,515, respectively). Morgan Stanley lifted its objective to €1,660 from €1,400, maintaining “Overweight.” All four cited improved demand visibility stretching to 2028 — a horizon that makes near-term volatility seem almost incidental.
The core of that optimism is ASML’s ability to scale production of its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines without proportionally increasing fixed costs. The company can now push annual EUV output beyond 90 systems — and do so without constructing additional cleanrooms. BofA, after meeting with ASML’s investor-relations head, expects unit volumes to exceed 90 by the end of 2027, helped by shorter lead times and efficiency gains in manufacturing. Newer E‑ and F‑generation machines also command higher average selling prices and margins.
Into that long-term narrative steps Elon Musk. The Tesla and SpaceX chief will appear virtually on Wednesday, June 11, at ASML’s internal Technology Conference. His topic: Terafab, a joint venture between the two companies that aims to build high-performance chips for robotics, artificial intelligence, and space-based data centers. The proposed plant in Grimes County, Texas, carries a minimum price tag of $55 billion, and the total project could consume as much as $119 billion. Intel will supply its 14A process technology, while the venture seeks between $20 billion and $25 billion in initial funding.
ASML’s chief executive, Christophe Fouquet, has publicly called Terafab a “serious undertaking” — rare validation from a company that seldom comments on individual projects. The logic is straightforward: ASML remains the world’s sole producer of EUV lithography tools, and any cutting-edge chip factory requires them. Terafab could therefore become one of the largest single customers the Dutch giant has ever served.
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That upside scenario, however, remains contingent on concrete orders. For now, investors are still digesting the shock from Broadcom. On June 3, the U.S. chipmaker reported solid quarterly numbers but guided for AI chip revenue of $16 billion in the current quarter — $1.2 billion shy of the $17.2 billion analysts had expected. Its full-year AI semiconductor forecast was left unchanged, but the damage was done. Broadcom shares fell 14% the following session, and the rout cascaded through the supply chain. ASML, KLA Corporation, Applied Materials, and Lam Research each lost between 5% and 6%.
The selloff also came ahead of a potentially tricky macro event. On June 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May consumer price data; April’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.8%. A hotter-than-expected print could pressure high-multiple technology names — ASML among them. Export restrictions on sales to China and softening investment budgets from some chipmakers add to the caution.
Yet the geographic mix of ASML’s revenue is shifting in a way that bolsters margins. China’s share of sales fell from 36% to 19%, while South Korea jumped from 22% to 45% and Taiwan rose from 13% to 23%. The decline in China business, constrained by U.S. export rules, is largely low-margin DUV equipment. Its replacement comes from high-margin EUV machines destined for AI-driven customers in Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. BofA expects China demand to recover from 2027, once memory-chip cleanrooms become available.
Fouquet has also weighed in on European technology policy. He welcomed parts of the EU’s June 3 package — Chips Act 2.0, the Cloud and AI Development Act, and an open-source strategy — but warned against bureaucratic overreach. “We must avoid the risk of overcomplication and bureaucracy and rely on private-sector expertise,” he wrote on LinkedIn. A clear message to Brussels: fund the ecosystem, but do not micromanage it.
Despite the week’s whiplash, ASML stock still stands roughly 45% higher year-to-date and has more than doubled over twelve months. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of €36 billion to €40 billion, raised in April, remains unchanged. The next quarterly report is due in July 2026. In the meantime, two forces will dominate: the macro backdrop — especially U.S. interest rates and Wednesday’s CPI — and the investment plans of the world’s top chipmakers. If TSMC, Samsung, and Intel reaffirm their capacity expansions, the analyst targets could quickly feel attainable again. And if Musk provides enough detail on June 11 to turn Terafab from ambition into a roadmap, the recent selloff may be remembered as little more than a pause.
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