HomeEarningsVanEck Chip ETF’s 7.6% Rout Masks Bullish Signals as AI Demand Remains...

VanEck Chip ETF’s 7.6% Rout Masks Bullish Signals as AI Demand Remains Intact

The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF suffered its worst single-day drubbing since the pandemic-era selloff on Friday, shedding between 7.44% and 7.63% depending on the data source, to close at roughly €92.04–€92.23. The fund’s record-breaking run to a 52-week high of €102.98 — set only two days earlier — evaporated in a matter of hours as two distinct headwinds collided: a stronger-than-expected US jobs report and a guidance miss from top holding Broadcom.

Jobs Data Dashes Rate-Cut Hopes

May’s US payrolls report showed 172,000 new jobs, more than double the 85,000 economists had forecast. The robust reading reignited fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated for longer, snuffing out the waning hopes of a near-term pivot. For richly valued semiconductor names that depend on cheap financing to justify their future earnings multiples, rising bond yields triggered an immediate repricing. Nvidia and Broadcom — the ETF’s two largest positions — led the retreat, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to its steepest daily loss since March 2020.

Broadcom’s Optimism Falls Short

Broadcom had already set the tone earlier in the week. While its quarterly report showed AI-related revenue surging to $10.8 billion, the company’s third-quarter guidance of $16 billion in chip sales fell a billion dollars short of the Street’s $17.2 billion estimate. That gap was enough to ignite a selloff across chip designers, and the selling pressure carried straight into Friday. With Broadcom accounting for roughly 8% of the VanEck fund’s portfolio — and the top ten holdings collectively soaking up nearly 80% of assets — the ETF’s concentrated structure amplified the pain. The fund holds only 25 US-listed names, leaving little room to diversify away from a sector-wide shakeout.

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Geopolitical Headwind Adds to the Pressure

Compounding the macro and micro issues, the US Commerce Department tightened export controls by closing a loophole that had previously allowed shipments of advanced AI chips to overseas subsidiaries of Chinese companies located in Country Group D:5 nations. The move raises the regulatory hurdle for chipmakers that depend on Chinese demand, even indirectly, and adds a fresh layer of uncertainty to an already jittery market.

Fundamentals Offer a Counterweight

Despite the sharp reversal, the ETF remains up roughly 67% to 68% year to date, and its long-term technical supports held firm. The fund still trades well above its 50-day moving average — by about 17% — and the relative strength index has receded to 55.5, exiting overbought territory without tipping into capitulation territory. ASML briefly became Europe’s most valuable publicly traded company during the week, touching a market capitalisation of $674 billion, while global semiconductor equipment orders jumped 14% year over year to $36.55 billion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by sustained AI investment and advanced packaging demand.

Investors are now left weighing the immediate shock against a backdrop of undeniable structural demand. The pace of any recovery will depend heavily on whether the Fed signals a softer stance on rates and whether Broadcom can deliver the next set of numbers that the market expects. For now, the chip rally has taken a breather — not a break.

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Brett Shapiro
Brett Shapirohttps://www.newscase.com/
Brett Shapiro is a co-owner of GovDocFiling. He had an entrepreneurial spirit since he was young. He started GovDocFiling, a simple resource center that takes care of the mundane, yet critical, formation documentation for any new business entity.

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