The space sector is caught in a gravitational tug-of-war ahead of SpaceX’s highly anticipated public market debut, and Rocket Lab is bearing the brunt of the repositioning. Shares tumbled 4.84% on Friday to €98.40, bringing the seven-day loss to a staggering 20%. The sell-off has little to do with Rocket Lab’s own performance and everything to do with a recalibration as investors clear decks for the industry’s biggest event: a SpaceX IPO slated for June 12 on the Nasdaq.
Rocket Lab’s descent has been particularly sharp given its recent highs. The stock hit a 52-week peak of €133.80 on May 27—a level now 26.46% above the current price. Over the past 90 days, however, a more troubling pattern has emerged.
Institutional money, meanwhile, has gone the other way. Westfield Capital Management boosted its Rocket Lab stake by 6.3% in the last quarter of 2025, bringing its holdings to nearly 2.6 million shares—making the stock the 25th-largest position in its portfolio. This divergence between insider selling and institutional buying underscores the speculative nature of the space investment theme. The SpaceX IPO is expected to value Elon Musk’s company at $1.77 trillion and raise around $75 billion, creating a benchmark that forces a re-rating of every other listed space stock.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
Rocket Lab’s fundamentals remain solid. First-quarter 2026 revenue surged 63.4% year-on-year to $200.35 million, beating expectations by a small margin. The net loss narrowed from $60.6 million to $45.0 million, and diluted earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.07, in line with forecasts. For the second quarter, management guided for revenue of $232.5 million, roughly 12% above consensus estimates, and adjusted EBITDA of $23 million. The balance sheet shows $1.205 billion in cash plus $177.9 million in short-term securities.
The technical picture is bruised but not broken. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 48.0, just below the neutral midpoint. Shares trade 17.61% above their 50-day moving average of €83.67 and 59.60% above the 200-day average of €61.65. Yet the annualized 30-day volatility of 131% marks Rocket Lab as a high-beta growth wager, not a stable industrial name—a label that the SpaceX IPO is unlikely to change. New Street Research recently reiterated a buy rating with a $150 price target, citing the company’s five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 67.2% and the potential of the in-development Neutron rocket. Whether Neutron sticks to its timeline will likely determine the next leg of the stock’s trajectory.
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