Great British Energy’s decision to pump £40 million into ITM Power for a 10.4% stake was always going to reshape the hydrogen company’s narrative. That equity injection, combined with a £46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, brings total state backing to £86.5 million — a sum earmarked to automate the Sheffield factory and shift ITM from manual assembly to a fully industrialised production line. Yet the market, notoriously short-termist, has responded by marking the stock down 9.3% on one day and another 7% on Friday to €1.82, leaving the shares 20% lower on the week.
The disconnect stems from a separate announcement that, on the surface, looked promising but lacked binding cash flows. ITM Power has signed a strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions to build utility-scale green hydrogen plants in Britain, starting with the Cromarty project in the Scottish Highlands. The deal, however, is a flexible framework. ITM and Protium are still weighing operator models — including deployment of the Hydropulse subsidiary or a direct sale of electrolysers — and no final investment decision has been taken. For the 15-megawatt Cromarty facility, capable of producing roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day for regional industrial customers, that decision is pencilled in for December 2026. Until then, the revenue line remains blank.
The market’s impatience stands in stark contrast to the structural transformation underway. The state money targets ITM’s next-generation Chronos electrolyser platform, which promises a step-change in economics. Each unit delivers 2.5 megawatts of capacity — roughly triple the previous generation — at 40% lower capital cost and in a footprint about half the size. The automated gigawatt-scale production line now being built in Sheffield will be the engine for scaling Chronos commercially. When that line gets its own final investment decision will determine the rhythm of ITM’s path to profitability.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Meanwhile, the order book is not empty. The REFHYNE-II project, a 100-megawatt PEM electrolyser system for Shell in Germany, recently won an award at the World Hydrogen Awards 2026, burnishing ITM’s credentials in large-scale industrial applications. And the Cromarty project, though pending FID, is designed to demonstrate containerised solutions — a format that could prove critical for broader deployment.
Retail investors appear to see value in the dichotomy. On 4 June, when the stock slid 9.3%, data from Interactive Investor showed that 63% of morning orders on ITM Power were buys, making it one of the most traded names on British retail platforms. The shares have run 151% higher since January and still trade comfortably above their 200-day moving average. The recent pullback, then, looks more like a recalibration after a steep rally than a structural breakdown.
What the stock lacks in the near term is a concrete financial trigger. The Protium agreement provides optionality, not revenue. The state funding de-risks the factory but does not guarantee a surge in customer orders. Until either the Cromarty FID lands in 2026 or the Chronos line receives its green light, ITM Power will remain hostage to the broader hydrogen sector’s mood swings — plus the occasional bout of profit-taking after a good run.
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