Two powerful narratives are colliding around D-Wave Quantum. On the operational front, the company is racking up fresh accolades, record customer commitments, and a potential $100 million government grant from the CHIPS and Science Act. On the trading floor, the stock is getting hammered — pulled down by profit-taking after a huge run and, more acutely, by the gravitational pull of a rival’s blockbuster Nasdaq debut.
D-Wave shares slid 7.8% on Wednesday and ended Thursday at €23.81 in European trading, leaving the stock down 7.71% over the past seven days. The culprit, according to market watchers, is the initial public offering of Quantinuum, which raised $1.68 billion on the Nasdaq at $60 per share, giving the company a valuation of roughly $14 billion. Honeywell, Quantinuum’s parent, retains nearly half of the voting rights. The float was massively oversubscribed, prompting many institutional investors to sell existing positions in other quantum names — D-Wave included — to free up capital for the new offering. The result is what analysts are calling a siphoning effect: D-Wave has shed nearly 39% from its 52-week high of €38.48.
Yet zooming out, the longer-term picture tells a different story. Over the past 30 days D-Wave is still up 17.29%, and the 12-month gain stands at a robust 65.46%. The current price is above the 200-day moving average, but the gap to the October peak shows how much the market is already repricing expectations.
A Bookings Boom and a Government Bet
The most tangible counterweight to the selling pressure is the company’s first-quarter performance. D-Wave reported bookings of $33.4 million for the three months ended March 31 — a staggering 1,994% surge from the year-ago period. That demand is no longer just a storyline for the distant future; customers are putting real money down. The company also signed a non-binding letter of intent under the CHIPS and Science Act that could see the U.S. Department of Commerce deliver $100 million in federal funding to support the development and scaling of D-Wave’s superconducting annealing and gate-model systems.
Analysts have responded favourably. B. Riley and Roth Capital both lifted their price targets to $40, while Rosenblatt sees fair value at $43. Across the street, 14 analysts carry a Buy rating, and the consensus stands at “Moderate Buy.” The cash position, too, provides a buffer: D-Wave finished the first quarter with $588.4 million in cash and marketable securities, a crucial cushion for a company operating in the capital-intensive quantum computing space.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?
Roadmap Ambitions and the Revenue Reality Check
D-Wave continues to pursue a dual-technology path. Its core strength lies in quantum annealing, which solves specific optimisation problems for corporate clients. But the company also updated its gate-model roadmap in early June, targeting 100 logical qubits capable of more than one million operations by 2032, using high-coherence dual-rail qubits and quantum error correction. That timeline underscores the long-haul nature of the investment thesis.
The hard numbers, however, complicate the narrative. First-quarter revenue slumped 81% to just $2.9 million — a stark contrast to the bookings explosion. The discrepancy reflects the difference between signed contracts and recognised revenue, and management has pointed to $42.4 million in fixed performance obligations for the second half of 2026 that must convert into actual sales. The company also plans to generate cloud-based revenue of up to $120 million annually, but that target remains aspirational for now.
Volatility as the Constant
D-Wave’s stock has a 30-day annualised volatility of 132.18%, a figure that explains the jittery price action. Even the recent “Great Place to Work” certification for 2026, based on direct employee feedback, could not staunch the outflows. Operationally, the story hinges on three factors: execution against the roadmap, the finalisation of the $100 million government grant, and further evidence that the bookings momentum translates into sustainable revenue growth.
For now, D-Wave is playing a long game in a short-term market. The Quantinuum IPO has reshuffled the deck, but the company’s own hand — a record order book, solid funding, and a clear technological roadmap — remains intact. The question is whether investors will wait for the cards to be played.
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