Iris Energy has locked in a transformation that few saw coming when it was still flying under the radar as a Bitcoin miner. The company now projects annualized revenue of $4.4 billion, up from $3.7 billion, after a nearly 20 percent upward revision that reflects the accelerating monetization of its AI cloud and high-performance computing services. The stock closed at €54.50 in Europe on Friday, extending its year-to-date gain to roughly 50 percent.
The centerpiece of this pivot is a five-year agreement signed in early May that does double duty. Nvidia will consume 60 megawatts of computing capacity at IREN’s Childress site in Texas, a contract valued at $3.4 billion — or roughly $680 million annually. But the deal also hands Nvidia the right to buy up to 30 million IREN shares at $70 apiece over the next five years, a potential $2.1 billion investment that would give the chip giant a stake of just under 10 percent. That optionality has already drawn in prominent hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, who boosted his own position by 57 percent.
Export curbs tip the scales toward western providers
The U.S. Commerce Department’s decision on May 31 to tighten export controls on cutting-edge AI chips has created a tailwind for infrastructure operators domiciled in friendly jurisdictions. Restrictions now cover shipments of high-end components such as Nvidia’s Rubin or Blackwell to Chinese-owned facilities even outside China, including sites in Malaysia. The move complicates life for international rivals while companies like IREN, already partnered with Nvidia and Dell, gain privileged access to the most efficient compute hardware available. Dell recently delivered the world’s first Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 supercomputer rack, a system that offers a fivefold inference boost over the Blackwell generation.
From crypto mining to a gigawatt-scale AI pipeline
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IREN?
IREN’s strategic shift is visible in the sheer scale of its infrastructure. The Sweetwater-1 facility, already live, boasts 1.4 gigawatts of capacity. Working with Nvidia, the company aims to support up to 5 gigawatts of data center capacity. The Childress site, when fully built out, is expected to deliver that $4.4 billion annualized revenue run rate. Outside the core AI agreement, IREN also signed a separate $1.6 billion purchase contract with Dell for air-cooled Blackwell systems.
The new Rubin generation of chips demands up to 230 kilowatts per rack, making liquid cooling a non-negotiable requirement. IREN plans strategic audits and capacity expansions this summer to prepare for that thermal challenge — a technical hurdle that legacy data center operators may find harder to clear.
Wall Street sees upside, but targets diverge
Analyst reactions have been broadly positive but far from unanimous. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $99 in late May, citing IREN’s plan to bring 670 megawatts of gross capacity online by 2027 — a pipeline it believes the market has yet to fully price in. Goldman Sachs, however, lifted its target to just $50 after the Dell contract was disclosed. The current consensus among analysts sits between $75 and $80. With the U.S.-listed stock trading around $63.54, it sits well above Goldman’s estimate but still below Cantor’s ambitious call.
Leopold Aschenbrenner has also turned bullish on the stock recently. Over the trailing twelve months, IREN shares have surged more than 600 percent, though the ride has been volatile: annualized volatility stands at 133 percent. The Nvidia and Dell partnerships provide greater visibility into future cash flows, but delivering the full 670 megawatts on schedule by 2027 will be the definitive test of the entire growth thesis.
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